Enviropop

How Big Oil Misled The Public Into Believing Plastic Would Be Recycled September 20th 2020

How Big Oil Misled The Public Into Believing Plastic Would Be Recycled

By Laura Sullivan

NPR.org, September 11, 2020 · Note: An audio version of this story aired on NPR’s Planet Money. Listen to the episode here.

Laura Leebrick, a manager at Rogue Disposal & Recycling in southern Oregon, is standing on the end of its landfill watching an avalanche of plastic trash pour out of a semitrailer: containers, bags, packaging, strawberry containers, yogurt cups.

None of this plastic will be turned into new plastic things. All of it is buried.

“To me that felt like it was a betrayal of the public trust,” she said. “I had been lying to people … unwittingly.”

Rogue, like most recycling companies, had been sending plastic trash to China, but when China shut its doors two years ago, Leebrick scoured the U.S. for buyers. She could find only someone who wanted white milk jugs. She sends the soda bottles to the state.

But when Leebrick tried to tell people the truth about burying all the other plastic, she says people didn’t want to hear it.

“I remember the first meeting where I actually told a city council that it was costing more to recycle than it was to dispose of the same material as garbage,” she says, “and it was like heresy had been spoken in the room: You’re lying. This is gold. We take the time to clean it, take the labels off, separate it and put it here. It’s gold. This is valuable.”

But it’s not valuable, and it never has been. And what’s more, the makers of plastic — the nation’s largest oil and gas companies — have known this all along, even as they spent millions of dollars telling the American public the opposite.

NPR and PBS Frontlinespent months digging into internal industry documents and interviewing top former officials. We found that the industry sold the public on an idea it knew wouldn’t work — that the majority of plastic could be, and would be, recycled — all while making billions of dollars selling the world new plastic.

The industry’s awareness that recycling wouldn’t keep plastic out of landfills and the environment dates to the program’s earliest days, we found. “There is serious doubt that [recycling plastic] can ever be made viable on an economic basis,” one industry insider wrote in a 1974 speech.

Yet the industry spent millions telling people to recycle, because, as one former top industry insider told NPR, selling recycling sold plastic, even if it wasn’t true.

“If the public thinks that recycling is working, then they are not going to be as concerned about the environment,” Larry Thomas, former president of the Society of the Plastics Industry, known today as the Plastics Industry Association and one of the industry’s most powerful trade groups in Washington, D.C., told NPR.

In response, industry representative Steve Russell, until recently the vice president of plastics for the trade group the American Chemistry Council, said the industry has never intentionally misled the public about recycling and is committed to ensuring all plastic is recycled.

“The proof is the dramatic amount of investment that is happening right now,” Russell said. “I do understand the skepticism, because it hasn’t happened in the past, but I think the pressure, the public commitments and, most important, the availability of technology is going to give us a different outcome.”

Here’s the basic problem: All used plastic can be turned into new things, but picking it up, sorting it out and melting it down is expensive. Plastic also degrades each time it is reused, meaning it can’t be reused more than once or twice.

On the other hand, new plastic is cheap. It’s made from oil and gas, and it’s almost always less expensive and of better quality to just start fresh.

All of these problems have existed for decades, no matter what new recycling technology or expensive machinery has been developed. In all that time, less than 10 percent of plastic has ever been recycled. But the public has known little about these difficulties.

It could be because that’s not what they were told.

Starting in the 1990s, the public saw an increasing number of commercials and messaging about recycling plastic.

“The bottle may look empty, yet it’s anything but trash,” says one ad from 1990 showing a plastic bottle bouncing out of a garbage truck. “It’s full of potential. … We’ve pioneered the country’s largest, most comprehensive plastic recycling program to help plastic fill valuable uses and roles.”

These commercials carried a distinct message: Plastic is special, and the consumer should recycle it.

It may have sounded like an environmentalist’s message, but the ads were paid for by the plastics industry, made up of companies like Exxon, Chevron, Dow, DuPont and their lobbying and trade organizations in Washington.

Industry companies spent tens of millions of dollars on these ads and ran them for years, promoting the benefits of a product that, for the most part, was buried, was burned or, in some cases, wound up in the ocean.

Documents show industry officials knew this reality about recycling plastic as far back as the 1970s.

Many of the industry’s old documents are housed in libraries, such as the one on the grounds of the first DuPont family home in Delaware. Others are with universities, where former industry leaders sent their records.

At Syracuse University, there are boxes of files from a former industry consultant. And inside one of them is a report written in April 1973 by scientists tasked with forecasting possible issues for top industry executives.

Recycling plastic, it told the executives, was unlikely to happen on a broad scale.

“There is no recovery from obsolete products,” it says.

It says pointedly: Plastic degrades with each turnover.

“A degradation of resin properties and performance occurs during the initial fabrication, through aging, and in any reclamation process,” the report told executives.

Recycling plastic is “costly,” it says, and sorting it, the report concludes, is “infeasible.”

And there are more documents, echoing decades of this knowledge, including one analysis from a top official at the industry’s most powerful trade group. “The costs of separating plastics … are high,” he tells colleagues, before noting that the cost of using oil to make plastic is so low that recycling plastic waste “can’t yet be justified economically.”

Larry Thomas, the former president of the Society of the Plastics Industry, worked side by side with top oil and plastics executives.

He’s retired now, on the coast of Florida where he likes to bike, and feels conflicted about the time he worked with the plastics industry.

“I did what the industry wanted me to do, that’s for sure,” he says. “But my personal views didn’t always jibe with the views I had to take as part of my job.”

Thomas took over back in the late 1980s, and back then, plastic was in a crisis. There was too much plastic trash. The public was getting upset.

In one document from 1989, Thomas calls executives at Exxon, Chevron, Amoco, Dow, DuPont, Procter & Gamble and others to a private meeting at the Ritz-Carlton in Washington.

“The image of plastics is deteriorating at an alarming rate,” he wrote. “We are approaching a point of no return.”

He told the executives they needed to act.

The “viability of the industry and the profitability of your company” are at stake.

Thomas remembers now.

“The feeling was the plastics industry was under fire — we got to do what it takes to take the heat off, because we want to continue to make plastic products,” he says.

At this time, Thomas had a co-worker named Lew Freeman. He was a vice president of the lobbying group. He remembers many of the meetings like the one in Washington.

“The basic question on the table was, You guys as our trade association in the plastics industry aren’t doing enough — we need to do more,” Freeman says. “I remember this is one of those exchanges that sticks with me 35 years later or however long it’s been … and it was what we need to do is … advertise our way out of it. That was the idea thrown out.”

So began the plastics industry’s $50 million-a-year ad campaign promoting the benefits of plastic.

“Presenting the possibilities of plastic!” one iconic ad blared, showing kids in bike helmets and plastic bags floating in the air.

“This advertising was motivated first and foremost by legislation and other initiatives that were being introduced in state legislatures and sometimes in Congress,” Freeman says, “to ban or curb the use of plastics because of its performance in the waste stream.”

At the same time, the industry launched a number of feel-good projects, telling the public to recycle plastic. It funded sorting machines, recycling centers, nonprofits, even expensive benches outside grocery stores made out of plastic bags.

Few of these projects actually turned much plastic into new things.

NPR tracked down almost a dozen projects the industry publicized starting in 1989. All of them shuttered or failed by the mid-1990s. Mobil’s Massachusetts recycling facility lasted three years, for example. Amoco’s project to recycle plastic in New York schools lasted two. Dow and Huntsman’s highly publicized plan to recycle plastic in national parks made it to seven out of 419 parks before the companies cut funding.

None of them was able to get past the economics: Making new plastic out of oil is cheaper and easier than making it out of plastic trash.

Both Freeman and Thomas, the head of the lobbying group, say the executives all knew that.

“There was a lot of discussion about how difficult it was to recycle,” Thomas remembers. “They knew that the infrastructure wasn’t there to really have recycling amount to a whole lot.”

Even as the ads played and the projects got underway, Thomas and Freeman say industry officials wanted to get recycling plastic into people’s homes and outside on their curbs with blue bins.

The industry created a special group called the Council for Solid Waste Solutions and brought a man from DuPont, Ron Liesemer, over to run it.

Liesemer’s job was to at least try to make recycling work — because there was some hope, he said, however unlikely, that maybe if they could get recycling started, somehow the economics of it all would work itself out.

“I had no staff, but I had money,” Liesemer says. “Millions of dollars.”

Liesemer took those millions out to Minnesota and other places to start local plastic recycling programs.

But then he ran into the same problem all the industry documents found. Recycling plastic wasn’t making economic sense: There were too many different kinds of plastic, hundreds of them, and they can’t be melted down together. They have to be sorted out.

“Yes, it can be done,” Liesemer says, “but who’s going to pay for it? Because it goes into too many applications, it goes into too many structures that just would not be practical to recycle.”

Liesemer says he started as many programs as he could and hoped for the best.

“They were trying to keep their products on the shelves,” Liesemer says. “That’s what they were focused on. They weren’t thinking what lesson should we learn for the next 20 years. No. Solve today’s problem.”

And Thomas, who led the trade group, says all of these efforts started to have an effect: The message that plastic could be recycled was sinking in.

“I can only say that after a while, the atmosphere seemed to change,” he says. “I don’t know whether it was because people thought recycling had solved the problem or whether they were so in love with plastic products that they were willing to overlook the environmental concerns that were mounting up.”

But as the industry pushed those public strategies to get past the crisis, officials were also quietly launching a broader plan.

In the early 1990s, at a small recycling facility near San Diego, a man named Coy Smith was one of the first to see the industry’s new initiative.

Back then, Smith ran a recycling business. His customers were watching the ads and wanted to recycle plastic. So Smith allowed people to put two plastic items in their bins: soda bottles and milk jugs. He lost money on them, he says, but the aluminum, paper and steel from his regular business helped offset the costs.

But then, one day, almost overnight, his customers started putting all kinds of plastic in their bins.

“The symbols start showing up on the containers,” he explains.

Smith went out to the piles of plastic and started flipping over the containers. All of them were now stamped with the triangle of arrows — known as the international recycling symbol — with a number in the middle. He knew right away what was happening.

“All of a sudden, the consumer is looking at what’s on their soda bottle and they’re looking at what’s on their yogurt tub, and they say, ‘Oh well, they both have a symbol. Oh well, I guess they both go in,’ ” he says.

The bins were now full of trash he couldn’t sell. He called colleagues at recycling facilities all across the country. They reported having the same problem.

Industry documents from this time show that just a couple of years earlier, starting in 1989, oil and plastics executives began a quiet campaign to lobby almost 40 states to mandate that the symbol appear on all plastic — even if there was no way to economically recycle it. Some environmentalists also supported the symbol, thinking it would help separate plastic.

Smith said what it did was make all plastic look recyclable.

“The consumers were confused,” Smith says. “It totally undermined our credibility, undermined what we knew was the truth in our community, not the truth from a lobbying group out of D.C.”

But the lobbying group in D.C. knew the truth in Smith’s community too. A report given to top officials at the Society of the Plastics Industry in 1993 told them about the problems.

“The code is being misused,” it says bluntly. “Companies are using it as a ‘green’ marketing tool.”

The code is creating “unrealistic expectations” about how much plastic can actually be recycled, it told them.

Smith and his colleagues launched a national protest, started a working group and fought the industry for years to get the symbol removed or changed. They lost.

“We don’t have manpower to compete with this,” Smith says. “We just don’t. Even though we were all dedicated, it still was like, can we keep fighting a battle like this on and on and on from this massive industry that clearly has no end in sight of what they’re able to do and willing to do to keep their image the image they want.”

“It’s pure manipulation of the consumer,” he says.

In response, industry officials told NPR that the code was only ever meant to help recycling facilities sort plastic and was not intended to create any confusion.

Without question, plastic has been critical to the country’s success. It’s cheap and durable, and it’s a chemical marvel.

It’s also hugely profitable. The oil industry makes more than $400 billion a year making plastic, and as demand for oil for cars and trucks declines, the industry is telling shareholders that future profits will increasingly come from plastic.

And if there was a sign of this future, it’s a brand-new chemical plant that rises from the flat skyline outside Sweeny, Texas. It’s so new that it’s still shiny, and inside the facility, the concrete is free from stains.

This plant is Chevron Phillips Chemical’s $6 billion investment in new plastic.

“We see a very bright future for our products,” says Jim Becker, the vice president of sustainability for Chevron Phillips, inside a pristine new warehouse next to the plant.

“These are products the world needs and continues to need,” he says. “We’re very optimistic about future growth.”

With that growth, though, comes ever more plastic trash. But Becker says Chevron Phillips has a plan: It will recycle 100% of the plastic it makes by 2040.

Becker seems earnest. He tells a story about vacationing with his wife and being devastated by the plastic trash they saw. When asked how Chevron Phillips will recycle 100% of the plastic it makes, he doesn’t hesitate.

“Recycling has to get more efficient, more economic,” he says. “We’ve got to do a better job, collecting the waste, sorting it. That’s going to be a huge effort.”

Fix recycling is the industry’s message too, says Steve Russell, the industry’s recent spokesman.

“Fixing recycling is an imperative, and we’ve got to get it right,” he says. “I understand there is doubt and cynicism. That’s going to exist. But check back in. We’re there.”

Larry Thomas, Lew Freeman and Ron Liesemer, former industry executives, helped oil companies out of the first plastic crisis by getting people to believe something the industry knew then wasn’t true: That most plastic could be and would be recycled.

Russell says this time will be different.

“It didn’t get recycled because the system wasn’t up to par,” he says. “We hadn’t invested in the ability to sort it and there hadn’t been market signals that companies were willing to buy it, and both of those things exist today.”

But plastic today is harder to sort than ever: There are more kinds of plastic, it’s cheaper to make plastic out of oil than plastic trash and there is exponentially more of it than 30 years ago.

And during those 30 years, oil and plastic companies made billions of dollars in profit as the public consumed ever more quantities of plastic.

Russell doesn’t dispute that.

“And during that time, our members have invested in developing the technologies that have brought us where we are today,” he says. “We are going to be able to make all of our new plastic out of existing municipal solid waste in plastic.”

Recently, an industry advocacy group funded by the nation’s largest oil and plastic companies launched its most expensive effort yet to promote recycling and cleanup of plastic waste. There’s even a new ad.

“We have the people that can change the world,” it says to soaring music as people pick up plastic trash and as bottles get sorted in a recycling center.

Freeman, the former industry official, recently watched the ad.

“Déjà vu all over again,” he says as the ad finishes. “This is the same kind of thinking that ran in the ’90s. I don’t think this kind of advertising is, is helpful at all.”

Larry Thomas said the same.

“I don’t think anything has changed,” Thomas says. “Sounds exactly the same.”

These days as Thomas bikes down by the beach, he says he spends a lot of time thinking about the oceans and what will happen to them in 20 or 50 years, long after he is gone.

And as he thinks back to those years he spent in conference rooms with top executives from oil and plastic companies, what occurs to him now is something he says maybe should have been obvious all along.

He says what he saw was an industry that didn’t want recycling to work. Because if the job is to sell as much oil as you possibly can, any amount of recycled plastic is competition.

“You know, they were not interested in putting any real money or effort into recycling because they wanted to sell virgin material,” Thomas says. “Nobody that is producing a virgin product wants something to come along that is going to replace it. Produce more virgin material — that’s their business.”

And they are. Analysts now expect plastic production to triple by 2050.

Britain’s Liberal ( Sic ) Elite Say ‘No Obvious Limit To Third World Immigration Into Britain September 5th 2020 By R.J Cook

50 Million Refugees & Economic Migrants Want To Come To Soft Touch Britain  September 5th 2020

Britain has an open borders policy. The upper middle class liberals are outraged by working class protests against illegal immigrants through Dover. These economic migrants have no right to come to Britain.  They come via France, pretending to be asylum seekers escaping oppression, yet bring their own culturally oppressive ideas, such as transphobia and laying down Islamic Law.  

Officially it is racist to oppose unlimited illegal immigratin, hostile environment policy breaches migrants ‘Human Rights’. Opposition is hate crime and jail inevitabe. Helping illegal immigrants has priority over helping indigenous homeless.

The low class masses pay the price, including more excuses for lockdown because BAME people are more vulnerable.  Our comfortable overpaid liberal elite do not feel the impact or pay the price. You can count on one hand the number of Muslim countries who welcome non Muslims, and when they do it is for expertise.

There is an unsustainable world population growth.  Among other outcomes is the fact that the Sahara desert gets bigger every year.  South Africa, following black majority rule, is now one of the most corrupt violent countries in the world. Democracy is even more alien to Africa than it is in Europe. Religious bigotry is the norm, with these racist cultures certain that they alone have the truth and a moral right to go where they like and do what they like.  Africa is a hell hole, so it is no surprise that there is no obvious end to this nightmare or hope of an honest response. R.J Cook

Police out in force to block anti immigration protestors in Dover today. Prof Alan Sked says there are 50 million waiting to come from Africa and the Middle East for new lives in Britain. If they are found in the Channel, having fled harsher and more realistic France, Britain must look after them , with good housing and paying legal fees.
Police play key role in preventing anti immigration protestors who are labelle d right wing by mainstream press and elite politicians. It is the elite who welcome immigrants and the poor who pay the price.

This European Country Has Some of the World’s Worst Air, and ‘It’s Too Expensive’ to Fix September 4th 2020

Skopje in North Macedonia is so polluted that the city stinks in winter. Residents blame decades of government corruption and inaction.

Toni Nikushevski gazed sternly at the two old garbage trucks that wobbled up the hill to the Drisla landfill, one of the largest in Europe, ready to deposit their day’s load. A blanket of trash—from bottles and cans to plastic bags and dirty diapers—lined the road as they ascended.

Nikushevski was among about a hundred environmental activists who had gathered that morning in February 2019, to denounce the landfill’s dangerously low standards, its management’s lack of transparency, and the pollution it spews on the environs of Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia.

“We are demanding immediate change to the way waste is treated in this institution,” Nikushevski told reporters. “Drisla is one of the most critical polluters in this city and in this country.”

A garbage truck makes its way into Drisla, one of the largest landfills in Europe

A garbage truck makes its way into Drisla, one of the largest landfills in Europe. Photo courtesy of Jana Cholakovska

Two weeks prior, Skopje registered a hazardous air quality index that was 8.6 times higher than what global health officials consider safe, surpassing both New Delhi in India and Dhaka in Bangladesh as the most polluted city in the world.

This year, as air pollution levels fell dramatically across Europe due to strict measures meant to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, North Macedonia exceeded set limits on multiple occasions. The country’s air pollution crisis—which took the lives of 3,580 Macedonians in 2019—could prove even more lethal as researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health have linked air pollution to higher coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths. North Macedonia’s coronavirus mortality rate—4.4 percent—is one of the highest in the region.

Over the past three decades, North Macedonia has not only fought its air pollution, but also the challenges that come with the slow and and sometimes painful process of democratization. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a wave of political and economic liberalization washed over Southeastern Europe and North Macedonia emerged from Yugoslavia as an independent republic. While attempting to find its place in the world, North Macedonia’s government did not have the capacity or resources to ensure proper sustainable practices, thus leaving many public institutions, like Drisla, largely neglected.

The 190-acre landfill is the only officially regulated dump in all of North Macedonia—meaning that it is the only one of the country’s 3,000 dumps that operates with any safeguards.

Sasho Todorovski, Drisla’s executive manager, who has been with the landfill since its opening in 1994, is proud of its work. “You must remember that we are still the only landfill in North Macedonia that uses some kind of technological process,” he said.

Workers pile solid waste, compact it, and cover it in clay, to both isolate potential pollutants and mask the smell. Drisla collects, identifies, weighs, and processes most of the country’s hazardous materials, and collects and burns half of its medical waste.

The handling of hazardous waste at Drisla has triggered much of the public ire. Workers collect syringes, expired pills, discarded gloves, and the like and place them in large sealed bags that are then cut into the smallest possible pieces, and thrown into the landfill’s incinerator, a hand-me-down from the British government in 2001. The castoff, pegged as humanitarian aid, was highly polluting and outlawed under EU standards. Extra parts would have made the machine more sustainable, but the price tag was way out of North Macedonia’s range.

Toni Nikushevski gazed sternly at the two old garbage trucks that wobbled up the hill to the Drisla landfill, one of the largest in Europe, ready to deposit their day’s load. A blanket of trash—from bottles and cans to plastic bags and dirty diapers—lined the road as they ascended.

Nikushevski was among about a hundred environmental activists who had gathered that morning in February 2019, to denounce the landfill’s dangerously low standards, its management’s lack of transparency, and the pollution it spews on the environs of Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia.

“We are demanding immediate change to the way waste is treated in this institution,” Nikushevski told reporters. “Drisla is one of the most critical polluters in this city and in this country.”

A garbage truck makes its way into Drisla, one of the largest landfills in Europe

A garbage truck makes its way into Drisla, one of the largest landfills in Europe. Photo courtesy of Jana Cholakovska

Two weeks prior, Skopje registered a hazardous air quality index that was 8.6 times higher than what global health officials consider safe, surpassing both New Delhi in India and Dhaka in Bangladesh as the most polluted city in the world.

This year, as air pollution levels fell dramatically across Europe due to strict measures meant to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, North Macedonia exceeded set limits on multiple occasions. The country’s air pollution crisis—which took the lives of 3,580 Macedonians in 2019—could prove even more lethal as researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health have linked air pollution to higher coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths. North Macedonia’s coronavirus mortality rate—4.4 percent—is one of the highest in the region.

Over the past three decades, North Macedonia has not only fought its air pollution, but also the challenges that come with the slow and and sometimes painful process of democratization. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a wave of political and economic liberalization washed over Southeastern Europe and North Macedonia emerged from Yugoslavia as an independent republic. While attempting to find its place in the world, North Macedonia’s government did not have the capacity or resources to ensure proper sustainable practices, thus leaving many public institutions, like Drisla, largely neglected.

The 190-acre landfill is the only officially regulated dump in all of North Macedonia—meaning that it is the only one of the country’s 3,000 dumps that operates with any safeguards.

Sasho Todorovski, Drisla’s executive manager, who has been with the landfill since its opening in 1994, is proud of its work. “You must remember that we are still the only landfill in North Macedonia that uses some kind of technological process,” he said.

Workers pile solid waste, compact it, and cover it in clay, to both isolate potential pollutants and mask the smell. Drisla collects, identifies, weighs, and processes most of the country’s hazardous materials, and collects and burns half of its medical waste.

The handling of hazardous waste at Drisla has triggered much of the public ire. Workers collect syringes, expired pills, discarded gloves, and the like and place them in large sealed bags that are then cut into the smallest possible pieces, and thrown into the landfill’s incinerator, a hand-me-down from the British government in 2001. The castoff, pegged as humanitarian aid, was highly polluting and outlawed under EU standards. Extra parts would have made the machine more sustainable, but the price tag was way out of North Macedonia’s range.

Whatever problems the incinerator brought to Skopje, they were better than what was in place before its arrival—the archaic practice of piling toxic waste in the middle of the landfill and setting it on fire. Dijana Veljanoska, Drisla’s chief of staff, acknowledged the landfill’s failings. “It was not in compliance with all environmental standards,” she said. “But, it was the best we could do.”

Whatever problems the incinerator brought to Skopje, they were better than what was in place before its arrival—the archaic practice of piling toxic waste in the middle of the landfill and setting it on fire. Dijana Veljanoska, Drisla’s chief of staff, acknowledged the landfill’s failings. “It was not in compliance with all environmental standards,” she said. “But, it was the best we could do.”

In the past 30 years, tight budgets have kept Drisla alive, but not properly functioning. When the incinerator first arrived, Drisla was under municipal control. But, the city quickly proved to be a terrible manager: not even one of the most basic processes of waste management—separating trash into categories like solid, organic, or recyclable—could be performed. Veljanovska describes those times as having “no standard whatsoever.”

In the years that followed, Drisla restructured multiple times. Between 2009 and 2010, the landfill was a successful self-financed private entity before a project sponsored by the World Bank suggested it transition into a private-public partnership: an international waste management company would own 80 percent of the shares and ensure steady investments, while the city would operate with the remaining 20 percent and retain institutional oversight.

What was supposed to be the beginning of a more streamlined and eco-friendly Drisla turned out to be the exact opposite. The company chosen to manage Drisla was FCL Ambiente, an unknown Italian company that was chosen over two of Europe’s leading waste management firms, the German Scholz AG and Austria’s Asa International Environmental Services. Balkan Insight later revealed that FCL Ambiente was set up only three days before the bidding deadline, even though interested companies were required to show both annual profits of at least $21.7 million and a minimum turnaround of $271 million for the previous five years. Concerns about irregularities and foul play during the bidding process spurred a lengthy legal battle. In the following decade, the ordeal served as an excuse for FCL Ambiente, which failed to invest the $86.1 million stipulated in the contract.

“We called it the smell of winter. We did not know that what that smoggy smell meant was enormous amounts of pollution.”

The months that followed Drisla’s legal troubles were a turning point for North Macedonia. The winter of 2014 brought on a wave of environmental protests that sparked a national conversation about air pollution. Gorjan Jovanovski, a software engineer and creator of the well-known air quality monitoring app AirCare, admitted that he was not aware of the severity of the pollution at the time. “We called it the smell of winter,” he said. “We did not know that what that smoggy smell meant was enormous amounts of pollution.”

Skopje’s distinctive smell of ash and chemicals is in fact the presence of particulate matter, hazardous microscopic solid or liquid particles suspended in the air. Although small, particulate matter is heavy. In the winter months, warmer air presses the heavier, colder air further into the valley, trapping the particulate matter and creating a thick quilt of fog and pollution.

The steep mountains guarding much of North Macedonia’s cities provide the perfect conditions—they make valleys virtually impenetrable to gusts of wind that might otherwise expel these heavy polluting particles. The only remedy is warmer, rainier spring days.

According to the European Environmental Agency, air pollution is the largest environmental health risk as particulate matter decreases the proper functioning of the immune system and exacerbates existing conditions like asthma and high blood pressure.

Petre Nikolovski is one of the many locals whose health has been permanently affected by North Macedonia’s dirty air. Now a retired electrical engineer, Nikolovski spent most of his career working for or near heavily polluting and largely unregulated industrial complexes. And in the late 1990s, Nikolovski and his family accidentally drove through a cloud of toxic chlorine gas after a plumbing installation exploded near his house. The accident significantly reduced Nikolovski’s already feeble lung function.

“My breathing is really heavy now. It sometimes feels like I am going to explode. The feeling creates not only pain but also panic.”

“My breathing is really heavy now,” he said. “It sometimes feels like I am going to explode. It is as if someone is sitting on my chest. The feeling creates not only pain, but also panic.”

Nikolovski now lives on the outskirts of Skopje. He had hoped that the concentration of particulate matter would be considerably lower outside the city’s limits. In the past two years, however, he has noticed the familiar gray smog inching ever so slightly closer to his refuge in the suburbs.

Both the EU and the WHO have set legal limits for particulate matter. But North Macedonia’s decrepit 18 official monitoring stations handily exceeded those standards in the past few years.

Deputy minister of the Ministry for the Environment and Physical Planning, Jani Makraduli, stands by the government’s plan to invest primarily in identifying and eliminating possible polluters, rather than in a new monitoring system. “We are focused on the sources of pollution,” Makraduli said. “And according to our information that is household heating. That is where we need to look for a solution.”

Household heating and vehicle exhausts are some of the leading causes of dangerous air pollution levels, since sustainable heating and a new car are simply not a possibility for many in a country where the average monthly salary hovers around $450.

Spotty air pollution data is one of North Macedonia’s thorniest issues. While the country received its first air monitoring system in 1998, some of these instruments are still in use today. The old technology is difficult to maintain and repair and is often only used for a few months at a time. Without replacing the monitoring system and letting it operate constantly, North Macedonia cannot be sure that it is properly and accurately tracking its air pollution levels.

Plus, the ministry is still the only accredited body so its data is what the EEA and the WHO use in their own reports.

“Ignoring the real air pollution contributors is the real issue here.”

Even Jovanovski relies on the government’s data for his app. “Even if the pollution is from household heating and old cars, they cannot be contributing to that extent,” Jovanovski said. “Ignoring the real air pollution contributors is the real issue here. They are living in a world without data.”

Makraduli acknowledged concerns and said that monitoring stations are mended whenever and as fast as possible. He also noted that a complete systematic overhaul, what the environmental activists are calling for, will require much more money. “The demands from activists already exist in some form or another across the ministry’s documents,” he said. “No one is saying that this type of project should not exist. But it is just too expensive.”

Much like the national system, Drisla’s own monitoring instrument works part-time. Veljanoska, Drisla’s chief of staff, said that it would be impossible to run the device constantly. “That would be too expensive; let’s not kid ourselves,” she said.

Costs kept coming up as a barrier for addressing air pollution. “In poor countries like North Macedonia it is really difficult to lead the fight for the environment,” Makraduli said. “What we need to do as a country is get together and ask: how will North Macedonia sustain itself energetically in the future? How are we going to balance economic development and environmental protection?”

This balance is incredibly difficult to maintain. But, the Paris Agreement stipulates that governments of developing countries must express commitment to a “Just Transition.” For Makraduli this is one of the most crucial aspects of his job. As transition to more sustainable ways of life brings about job loss it is his view that change must be strategic.

At present, Drisla does not have the capacity to transform its waste into energy. But Markraduli and Nikushevski are convinced that this is the path forward. A complete overhaul would require much more transparency, investments, and commitment from state institutions, activists, and citizens.

Both Drisla and North Macedonia have made substantial progress in the past few months. In January, Drisla finally broke the contract with its Italian partner and in June, got rid of its incinerator. Instead, it procured a new sterilizer that would streamline the way medical waste is treated. And in March, after three decades of uncertainty, the country officially became NATO’s 30th member and received an invitation for accession talks to the EU.

“Entry into the EU would really help us,” Makraduli said. “That is something that would push us more, the higher standards. No one is saying that we do not know what needs to be done. Or that we do not want to. But that costs money. I am optimistic that entry into the EU will completely change our society. Then there will be no excuses. No alibi. Only work.”

All interviews were conducted in Macedonian and translated into English.

Jana Cholakovska is a freelance reporter based in New York City, specializing in climate, politics, and Eastern Europe. She is a contributing writer for The Interlude and a former intern at City & State. Follow her on Twitter.

Comment Who cares so long as all this corrupt exploitation of the earth and manic overpopulation – sustained by ignorance and religious bigotry – keeps the top 10% in the style and high living.

Roberta Jane Cook

Drought Has Revealed Spain’s Long-Submerged ‘Stonehenge’ August 31st 2020

Up close with the 7,000-year-old Dolmen of Guadalperal.

Atlas Obscura

  • Alyssa McMurtry

Dolmen_Guadalperal_Verano_2019.jpg

Due to the low water level of the Valdecañas Reservoir, the Doldal de Guadalperal is fully visible. Photo by Pleonr / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA.

The summer of 2019 was unusually scorching across Europe and beyond, and things have only grown more intense in the already hot and dry region of Extremadura in Spain. Months into an official drought that could be developing into a mega-drought, local farmers are facing the loss of hundreds of millions of euros. Many think this is just a sign of things to come.

Droughts, and the way that they strip the land of plant cover and drain lakes and reservoirs, for all the problems they cause, are often a boon for archaeologists. The water level of the Valdecañas Reservoir in the province of Cáceres has dropped so low that it is providing an extraordinary glimpse into the past.

“All my life, people had told me about the dolmen,” says Angel Castaño, a resident of Peraleda de la Mata, a village just a couple miles from the reservoir, and president of the local cultural association. “I had seen parts of it peeking out from the water before, but this is the first time I’ve seen it in full. It’s spectacular because you can appreciate the entire complex for the first time in decades.”

The dolmen he’s talking about is known as the Dolmen of Guadalperal, the remains of a 7,000-year old megalithic monument consisting of around 100 standing stones—some up to six feet tall—arranged around an oval open space. It takes hours of hiking to get to the dolmen, which is now a few dozen yards away from the edge of the tranquil blue water. Visitors today are more likely to see deer than guards. Traces of aquatic plant life in the sand show that the site is dry and accessible only temporarily.

“When we saw it, we were completely thrilled,” Castaño says. “It felt like we had discovered a megalithic monument ourselves.”

Archaeologists believe the dolmen was likely erected on the banks of the Tagus River in the fifth millennium BC, as a completely enclosed space, like a stone house with a massive cap stone on top. And though it had been known, perhaps even damaged, by the Romans, it had faded beyond memory until German archaeologist Hugo Obermaier led an excavation of the site in the mid-1920s. Obermaier’s work wasn’t published until 1960, but by then the tide of the 20th century was on its way to the ancient site.

In his quest to modernize Spain, Francisco Franco’s regime carried out a number of massive civil engineering projects, including a dam and reservoir that flooded the Dolmen of Guadalperal in 1963. Archaeological studies and environmental impact reports before such projects weren’t regular practice at the time, says Primitiva Bueno Ramirez, a specialist in prehistory at the University of Alcalá. “You couldn’t believe how many authentic archaeological and historic gems are submerged under Spain’s man-made lakes.”

The Valdecañas Reservoir brought water and electricity to underdeveloped parts of western Spain, but that came at a cost. “The flooding was tragic on many levels,” says Castaño. “From the historic point of view, it drowned these megalithic monuments and most of the remains of a Roman city called Augustóbriga. [Portions of the ruins were relocated to a nearby hilltop.] From the human point of view, an inhabited town was flooded and people were forced to move out of their homes.” ThMenhir_esculturado_Dolmen_Guadalperal_Parte_delantera.jpg

Sculpted menhir at the Dolmen of Guadalperal. Photo by Pleonr / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA.

As water levels in the reservoir have fluctuated over the years, the tips of the tallest stones sometimes become visible, but it is a rare occurrence—so far—for the entire structure to be high and dry. Dolmens like this one were tombs or sites for ritual—think Stonehenge—and ones like it appear in different cultures all over the world, from Ireland to India to the Korean Peninsula. One of the standout attributes of the Dolmen of Guadalperal is a large stone, or menhir, that marked the entrance. A human figure is engraved on its front, along with a long squiggly line on another face. Scientists believe it is a representation of a snake.

When Castaño, a philologist by trade, saw it, he saw an ancient map of the now-flooded portions of the Tagus River. It’s not a widely accepted theory, but there are similarities between the “squiggle” and the course of the river. If he’s right, it could represent one of the oldest maps ever found. “It was intuition,” he says. “Before the area was flooded, the river had a strange bend that matched where the snake’s head was supposed to be. I rushed to consult an old map of the river, and I realized that the curvy line corresponded nearly 100 percent to the river’s path.”

Bueno, who studied the monument in the 1990s, when the waters were low enough for the top half of the dolmen to emerge, has her doubts. “I appreciate his enthusiasm, but from my archaeological understanding, I would say that the line is geometric and similar to ones found in megalithic art across Europe. In this case, it could be identified as a serpent.” She adds that further studies are needed.

While the Dolmen of Guadalperal has widely been compared to Stonehenge—and rightly so—the Spanish example was once an entirely enclosed space. And it could also be around 2,000 years older.

When it was intact, according to Bueno, people would have entered through a dark, narrow hallway adorned with engravings and other decorations, probably carrying a torch. This would lead to an access portal into the more spacious main chamber, which had a diameter of around 16 feet, where the dead would be laid to rest. It’s also likely that the monument was oriented around the summer solstice, allowing, for just a few moments a year, the sun to shine on the community’s ancestors. Construction of such a large space, with such heavy materials, would have taken a great deal of both effort and ingenuity.

According to Bueno, archaeologists have also found that this region presents some of the earliest evidence of humans making flour (more than 8,000 years ago) and using honey (more than 7,000 years ago). By the third and fourth millennium BC, they were even brewing their own cerveza.

Odd as it might seem for something that is 7,000 years old and made of stone, the fate of the dolmen now depends on Madrid. The granite stones are porous and vulnerable to ongoing erosion. After more than 50 years underwater, some stones that were standing when Obermaier studied them now lie flat, others that were once intact are now cracked. Castaño and his organization are urging the government to move the stones to permanently dry land, but Bueno worries that this could just accelerate the damage, especially if the process is rushed, without extensive study first. And within a month the dolmen could again be swallowed up by the lake.

“Whatever we do here, needs to be done extremely carefully,” Bueno says. “We need high-quality studies using the latest archaeological technology. It may cost money, but we already have one of the most difficult things to obtain—this incredible historic monument. In the end, money is the easy part. The past can’t be bought.” Atlas Obscura

More from Atlas Obscura

Why is this heatwave lasting so long? Blame climate change August 20th 2020

The climate crisis has made heatwaves more likely – and when they do happen they tend to be longer and hotter than ever before

Last Friday, the UK experienced its hottest day in August for 17 years as temperatures hit an unbearable high of 36.4 Celsius in the south east of England. That came just two weeks after the Met Office logged the UK’s third hottest day on record, when temperatures soared to 37.8C.

For many, it feels like this never-ending series of summer heatwaves is becoming more intense every year. And while thousands of people might have flocked to the beach to bathe in the scorching sun, many are also left wondering – is this the new normal? And has the climate crisis made sweltering heatwaves like this one more likely to occur?

For many climate scientists, the answer is a resounding yes. The World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA) has been conducting analyses of recent extreme weather events to try and understand if the climate crisis has exacerbated these phenomena by comparing extreme weather events with models in which carbon emissions have not altered the temperature of the Earth.

In July 2019, the UK experienced its highest temperature on record when it reached 38.7C in Cambridge. In a report released shortly after the summer 2019 heatwave swept Europe, the WWA found that the heatwave in the UK was made twice as likely because of climate change. While in the Netherlands and France, where temperatures reached 40.7C and 41.2C respectively, the climate crisis had made the record-breaking heatwave 100 times more likely.

Read next

“If the whole world warms, the UK warms. If the summer warms, heatwaves warm,” says Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, which is a part of the WWA. The most notable aspect of the current heatwave that we’re all suffering through, says van Oldenborgh, is the sheer length of it, which is reflected in the high weekly average temperatures. “This shows up even more in the night-time temperatures,” he says. “Here in the Netherlands, the weekly mean minimum temperatures this week are more than two degrees above the previous record.”

Since before the beginning of the industrial revolution, the global temperature has risen by around 1C, making the chance of heatwaves like the one we’re experiencing right now consistently likelier. And, when they do occur, they’re also more likely to be hotter and longer. The WWA found that the highest daily average temperature each year was noticeably warmer across the globe than it was a century ago, with the only exceptions being the Eastern United States and India – where other factors had already increased the intensity of those heatwaves.

The intensity of other extreme weather events have already been linked to the climate crisis. The Australian bushfires which started in late 2019 are estimated to have been made more likely to occur by at least 30 per cent because of the climate crisis. WWA researchers even warned that a 30 per cent increase could be a conservative estimate because the climate models tend to underestimate the increases in extreme temperatures. “Those conditions wouldn’t have been so hot if it hadn’t been for climate change,” says Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, who was not part of the study. “These extra bumps in temperature potentially make the impacts worse, such as making it more likely to get bushfires.”

The study followed research from the Met Office, which found that the 2018 heatwave in the UK had been made 30 times more likely to occur than it would have been in the year 1750 because of the climate crisis increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Intense thunderstorms, one of which is expected to strike the UK after the current heatwave subsides, are also likely amplified by the climate crisis. Warmer atmospheres absorb more moisture, which creates the perfect condition for severe storms to form, allowing potentially dangerous quantities of rain to fall in just a few days or even hours.

Linking extreme weather events to the climate crisis is important. Not only does it help us more easily see trends and patterns in the climate, but also to make better plans for a hotter future. “We’re going to get more days where we get certain hot temperatures, which cause problems to our infrastructure, such as roads or railways, or electronic networks, which struggle in the heat,” says Hawkins. “When we get these events, they’re very useful for talking about how we get used to them and learn how to deal with them better.”

Heatwaves haven’t just been getting more severe they’ve also been getting longer. And they’re only going to get worse as the years go by. The majority of the world has experienced heatwaves increase by a day every single decade since 1950, with heatwaves in lower-latitude areas increasing by between three and five days each decade. A further 13.8 per cent of the world’s population are estimated to suffer through heatwaves at least once every five years even if the globe warms by just 1.5C.

So what happens next? We have some difficult choices to make. “If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the same rate as we are, then global temperatures will continue to rise, and these conditions will just get worse and worse,” warns Hawkins. “What happens next is completely down to us.”

Comment Bullshit. Blame, ruling class propaganda, endless greed motivated wars masquerading as wars for democracy, BAME, Third World Dictatorships, overpopulation, religious bigotry and capitalist profiteering.

As long as there are sacred cows, the problems will only get worse. Too much money in too few greedy hands means : war disease and famine are inevitable. The world is run by and for the rich.

World leaders should be pushing religion out of the way, but they need all this ‘freedom to worship in your own way’ crap as ‘opium for the masses.’ Diversity is a strata, choose which layer of rock you want to be trapped in, trans, gay, Islam, paranoid in therapy, whatever, so long as your mind is elsewhere because you have accepted your place and label, the elite feel safe.

You can be whatever you can afford to be, under Western elite rule, so long as you are not an individual. So make sure you wear that mask. If you have an average brain you should not need a conspiracy theory to work it out. It is in our faces. Robert Cook


How Religion is Making Overpopulation Worse

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By Vexen Crabtree
Human Truth

Muslims worshipping in The Irish republic’s once sacred Croke Park, Dublin. The Catholic Bishop of Dublin set this up, thinking it wonderful. Will the world be a better place if Catholics and Muslims join forces.

Since there is no God , even if there has been a creative force or intelligent creation, I think it is bad and getting worse. God does not provide. It is insane to think there is such a caring force in a world of increasing tyranny and misery for the masses. But religion brainwashes children from year zero. AS the Jesuits said, ‘Give me the boy until aged 7 and I will give you the man…’

But politicnas who are the front folk for corrupt rich, have seized on the rising reborn religious lunacy that has been used to kill so many in the past. It will go on killing more. Religion is a mental illness. If it were based on truth it would not need enshrining in law. Religion is an absurd piece of inductive thinking, plucked from nowhere but fearful minds and tyrants’ greed. Robert Cook.

1. The Necessity of Birth Control and Contraception and the Opposition

Few people doubt the severity of the problem that overpopulation presents for this planet. Its consequences are poverty, famine, disease and death, sometimes on very large scales. Minor problems include overcrowding, strained infrastructure and social instability. By facilitating contraception and women’s medical services we enable family planning. “Allowing women to plan their pregnancies also leads to healthier outcomes for children. A recent study showed that if all births were spaced at least two years apart, the number of deaths among children younger than five would decline by 13%. The number would decline by 25% if there were a three-year gap between births“[1]. Making birth control accessible to all is a moral requirement for anyone who has the power to help. It is inconsistent, for example, to say that contraception and abortion is “murder” whilst ignoring the fact that poverty and overpopulation are far bigger killers.

Aside from population control, “the health benefits of contraceptive use are substantial. Contraceptives prevent unintended pregnancies, reduce the number of abortions, and lower the incidence of death and disability related to complications of pregnancy and childbirth”[1]. The numbers of abortions that are prevented by contraception is staggering. A Guttmacher Institute report on the developing world predicts that “in 2012, use of modern contraceptives in the developing world will prevent 218 million unintended pregnancies, which, in turn, will avert 55 million unplanned births, 138 million abortions (40 million of them unsafe), 25 million miscarriages and 118,000 maternal deaths. It will also prevent an estimated 1.1 million neonatal deaths (those within 28 days of birth) and 700,000 postneonatal infant deaths (those from 28 days to one year of age)”[1]. Condoms help prevent the spread of disease – their effect is strong enough that long-term use by a community can gradually eradicate strains of sexually transmitted diseases from the community. Venereal disease causes unimaginable suffering and can affect the purely innocent. Babies are frequently infected with the diseases of the parents; in this way, the prevention of disease with contraception is vital because once women in a local area are infected with a disease, children will also be directly infected. In the case of incurable diseases, such an event can lead to unsurmountable suffering. Such a terrible state of affairs is prevented by the correct use of contraceptives such as condoms. The number of women with unmet needs for contraception in the developing world is still increasing – between 2008 and 2012 the figure rose from 153 million to 162 million[1]. Those 69 countries are the ones that are least able to support growing populations.

“Some of the religious traditions have presented recurring obstacles to open discussion of certain kinds of birth control at UN population conferences. These religious groups are associated largely with Islam, Roman Catholicism, and evangelical Christianity.”

“Religion and Ecology” Mary Evelyn Tucker (2011)[2]

Religious opposition to abortion, birth control and contraception: Despite the practical necessity of birth control, the benefits of disease prevention, the moral responsibility we have towards the future of our children and the responsibility we have with regards to the stewardship of our planet, many religions have opposed birth control for various superstitious reasons. On the other side of the fence, it is worth knowing that all of the pioneers of contraception were freethinkers[3],[4], (that is, people who are opposed to the influence of organized religion on people’s opinions and beliefs). Why have religions determined to prevent family planning? The answer is in a kind of survival of the fittest amongst religions themselves. As most religious people simply abide by the religion of their parents[5], religions that encourage parents to have more children will attain a stronger and longer-lasting base of adherents. Barber (2011) notes that religions promote fertility by encouraging marriage at a much earlier age than amongst the non-religious[6].

Bearing this out is Catholicism, which has an infamously strict suite of dogmas that forbid all kinds of birth control. The Roman Catholic Church is the most notable, powerful and active organisation that lobbies against birth-control wherever it can, internationally. Thankfully most Catholics routinely ignore the Church on this issue, especially in educated and developed countries, but there are still plenty of fast-growing countries where the Catholic Church is still prospering the old-fashioned way. It took the government of the Philippines 13 years to force through legislation to allow government-funded contraception and for sex education in schools because of the strength of the opposition of the Catholic Church there – in a country where 11 women die of pregnancy-related problems every day. The Catholic Church “ferociously” opposed it, warning of moral and social collapse, the destruction of family life, and divine wrath, if it was passed. The bill is considered “a major step toward reducing maternal deaths and promoting family planning in the impoverished country, which has one of Asia’s fastest-growing populations. […] The United Nations said early this year that the bill would help reduce an alarming number of pregnancy-related deaths, prevent life-threatening abortions and slow the spread of AIDS”[7].

The graph to the right can be clicked to view the full size version. It shows that the effects of religious prohibitions against birth control are clear on the international scale. No country that is either less than 40% religious, or has less than a 40% rate of belief in God, has a fertility rate of over 2.0. Conversely, every country that has a fertility rate of over 3.0 is over 80% in terms of both belief in God and in the rate at which they say they are religious.

Muslims believe they have the only truth, attacking Christian symbols across the west, attacking infidels through terrorism and hate speech. They are protected in what had been a world showing hopeful signs of abandoning backward looking relgious bigotry.

On account of all of this, in “Why I am not a Christian” by Bertrand Russell (1957) the author takes a moral stance against the Church:

“I begin with contraception, because here the influence of superstition is particularly noteworthy. […] If either of the parents has venereal disease, the child is likely to inherit it. If they already have too many children for the family income, there will be poverty, underfeeding, overcrowding, very likely incest. To please [the anti-contraception religious types] a life of torture is inflicted upon millions of human beings […] merely because it is supposed that sexual intercourse is wicked unless accompanied by desire for offspring. […] If they had even the smallest spark of love or pity for children they could not adhere to a moral code involving this fiendish cruelty. […]

To be killed suddenly and then eaten, which was the fate of the Aztecs’ victims, is a far less degree of suffering than is inflicted upon a child born in miserable surroundings and tainted with venereal disease. Yet it is the greater suffering which is deliberately inflicted by bishops and politicians in the name of morality.”

Why I am not a Christian” by Bertrand Russell (1957)[3]

Simple contraceptive measures such as condoms can be used to prevent long-term suffering and control population growth, but also endows families with shorter term relief from suffering, and it is for these reasons that Bertrand Russell above states that Aztec cannibalism produced less suffering than anti-birth control lobbyists. The availability of methods to control family size is one of the biggest factors in being able to escape poverty.

“In the world as a whole, a stunning 135m people escaped dire poverty between 1999 and 2004. […] More people, more quickly than at any other time in history. […] Perhaps the biggest change affecting people’s lives has little to do, at least directly, with development policy or public spending. People in poor countries are now able to exert more control over their own fertility, and hence over the size of their families.”

The Economist (2008)[9]

Aside from statistical commentary, it is often individual cases that can educate people about the need, however unfortunate, for abortions to be available at proper medical institutions. Neil J. Kressel relates a story about an American woman who “now believes abortion rights are an important component of American civil rights and that physicians have a moral obligation to make them available, even if at considerable risk to themselves. […] Her change of heart came partly from experiences during her medical training, including one occasion when she had to counsel an eleven-year-old girl. The doctor recalls: ‘[I]t soon became obvious that she had no understanding of sex – she didn’t really understand that she’d even had it, or that it had any connection to her pregnancy”[10]. In the real-world, the moral arguments are strongly in favour of those who defend the right of women and doctors to be able to freely use abortion as one of their possible methods of preventing harm.

2. Condom Promotion vs. Harmful Ideology

2.1. Anti-Condom Pseudoscience

Condoms are scientifically proven to be superior methods of preventing the spread of sexually transmitted diseases and are effective methods of birth control[11]. But, for superstitious reasons, some religions such as the Catholic Church and a mixture of other fundamentalist groups have run (and still run) long campaigns against their use[11]. Their ideology not only prevents them from using effective anti-disease contraception, but it causes them to also (a) deny its effectiveness (b) emphasize problems with condoms and (c) actively campaign against others’ use of it, and even to the extent of sabotaging the distribution of condoms. Catholic agencies in Africa have committed such horrors as instructing all condoms to be stapled (piercing them), and Christian leaders are regularly caught teaching that condoms don’t work and recently, that Westerners are distributing HIV-ridden condoms that will give their users AIDS. (HIV is the virus that causes AIDS, but, neither survives outside the body so such stories are misinformed, let alone paranoid).

2.2. Abstinence-Only Sex Education

Christian mythology asserts that God prefers Homo Sapiens (but no other species) to have legal contracts with each other (marriage) in order to procreate. Conservative Christians often talk about “abstinence-only” education, and in many states in the USA have conducted battles to stop schools from educating children about safe sex. Instead, they teach, that in order to be responsible Christians adults, you have to abstain from sex until marriage.

“In the US and elsewhere, ‘Just Say No!’ campaigns promote sexual abstinence, while unmarried young people with a sexual past are encouraged to become “born-again virgins” through a pledge to refrain from further sexual activity until marriage. However, such programmes have generally been unsuccessful in radically changing sexual behaviour or in reducing rates of HIV/Aids transmission, as health evaluations have demonstrated.”

Sexuality: A Very Short Introduction” by Veronique Mottier (2008)[12]

But, whether or not abstinence-only works can be tested and studied. “Studies have found that abstinence-only sex education programs actually increase the rates of pregnancy and STDs in the teenage population”[13]. “Kirsten Underhill and her colleagues at the University of Oxford have, over the past few months, been testing it”[14]. Their studies involved 16 000 young people in America and compared Christian abstinence-only education with no (or low key) education.

“Pregnancies were as numerous in both groups. Sexually transmitted diseases were as widespread. The number of sexual partners was equally high and unprotected sex just as common. […] In contrast to the fears of the protagonists of abstinence-only-education, not one of the trials found that teenagers behaved in a riskier fashion in either the long or the short term after receiving [condom] instruction.”

The Economist (2007)[15]

However in 2009 new data revealed that in the USA at least, abstinence-only education was not only ineffectual, but was actually making things worse:

“To the surprise of few outside the rarefied world of the Religious Right, it has emerged that George W Bush’s “abstinence only” policies led directly to a rise in teenage pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. The Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says that after years of falling rates, teen pregnancies and STDs started rising after Bush was re-elected in 2005.

According to the CDC, birth rates among teenagers aged 15 or older had been in decline since 1991 but rose sharply in more than half of American states after 2005. The number of teenage girls with syphilis had risen by nearly half after a big decrease, while a 20-year fall in the gonorrhea infection rate was being reversed. AIDS cases in adolescent boys had nearly doubled. […]

The number of teen pregnancies is double in areas where abstinence is the only method of birth control taught as opposed to areas where there is comprehensive sex education and condoms are handed out. […] Religious proponents of the “abstinence-only” policies still insist that the reason for the rise is because their policies were not promoted hard enough.”

National Secular Society, National Secular Society (2009)[16]

The Bible-belt is a swathe of Southern states in the USA famous for their embrace of tough Christianity. It was here, where abstinence-only programmes are popular, that the CDC reported the highest rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs.

In conclusion:

  • Condoms excel at preventing sexually transmitted diseases, and, educating people about safe sex and condom use does not lead to increased promiscuity.
  • Abstinence-only education does not work and has led to increased rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs.

3. The Catholic Church’s Eternal and Absolute Truth

The Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, embody a wide range of opinions and practices on contraception. In the 1920s, most Christian denominations, including both Protestants and Catholics, were against birth control and contraception[17]. According to a Catholic website, “At its 1930 Lambeth Conference, the Anglican church, swayed by growing social pressure, announced that contraception would be allowed in some circumstances. Soon the Anglican church completely caved in, allowing contraception across the board. Since then, all other Protestant denominations have followed suit”[18]. In modern times it is the Catholic church that is most famously and strongly against the use of contraceptives, even for the use of disease prevention. But whilst the official doctrine as propounded from the pulpit is strict; condemnations of contraceptive use are widely ignored on the ground. Even in Poland, Europe’s most Catholic country, “many are openly defying its rulings on contraception and abortion”[19]. Hindus are free to employ birth control methods as they see fit.

Any conscientious priest in the Catholic Church should consider openly declaring dissatisfaction with the Vatican’s anti-human and anti-equality policies. Mother Theresa, one of the other “good guys” who has rabidly opposed condoms, spent millions flying to and fro in Europe and the USA on political campaigns against contraceptives. The Catholic Church, with all its money, could turn itself into a force for good and squarely put the dark ages behind itself, but, riddled with superstition and religious inhibitions, it is still a dangerous and dysfunctional failure, crippled by delusions about the real world.

3.1. The Absolute Truth until 1930: All Birth Control Methods are Wrong

The Catholic Church has heavily opposed all forms of birth control for all of known history. The current document is Pope Paul VI’s Humanae Vitae (1968)[20], reflecting the opinion of Pope Piux XI in 1930 that the Catholic Church teaches absolute truth as passed down ‘uninterruptedly from the beginning’[21]. Between 1816 and 1916 there were twelve separate condemnations of contraception issued by the Catholic Church’s Sacred Penitentiary[17]. One thing is clear: For much of its history, the Catholic Church has strongly opposed contraception. In particular, it has opposed any method that intentionally prevents childbirth between a married man and woman.

3.2. The Absolute Truth from 1930: The Safe Period Method is OK

Despite this clear, long-standing and impractical standing, things slightly changed in 1930. The eternal truth passed down and taught by Catholics “from the beginning”, slightly changed for the better, and the Casti Connubii allowed, in extreme situations, couples to use the ‘safe period’ or ‘rhythm’ method. This inaccurate method hardly works and doesn’t stop the spread of disease, but, nonetheless, the position of the Catholic Church changed a little. This change in absolute, eternal doctrine of the infallible Pope (get the sarcasm?) was confirmed twice by Pope John XXIII in 1951.

3.3. Immoral

It is no wonder that Bryan Wilson, in his discussion of how Christian Churches have followed society, but lagged behind (therefore undermining their own claims of doctrinal moral truth), uses the history of birth control as his main example of the changes in society that have led to changes in Church doctrine[22].

43% of Roman Catholic priests in England & Wales do not support the Church’s ban on contraception (another 19% are unsure)

National Secular Society, Newsline (2003)[23]

All of this so far would be merely an academic curiosity, another example of zany religious clerics making odd declarations based on ever odder historical precedents. But the Catholic Church is also a heavy activist, and has caused uncountable numbers of poor people in South America and Africa to become infected with HIV and other STDs, contributed to the dangerous population explosion, and undermined charity organisations that support birth control, such as when the Birmingham Catholic Church boycotted Comic Relief because money raised might go to a family planning clinic that gave access to contraceptions to street children[24]. The Catholic Church causes very real suffering amongst very poor people as a result of its impractical policies.

3.4. Catholic Church Opposing Condoms in Africa, Despite HIV Threats

Africa suffers massively from HIV and AIDS, and is the continent that saw the first cases. 20 million people have died from AIDS in Africa and a further 22.5 million are infected with HIV. Many are born with it, as it often passes from mother to baby, and due to the nature of HIV, many people can have the virus but remain without symptoms, sometimes for decades.

The Catholic Church still strongly opposes the use of condoms in Africa, which is home to 135 million Catholics[25]. In Kenya, local Bishops have instead recommended that abstinence, “counseling” and “ethics” are used to prevent the spread of HIV, instead of condoms. The Catholic Church has run long-term campaigns against condoms. Dr Muga, Kenya, said that the government has reduced infection rate from 14% to 10% as a result of sex education and condom contraception, but still, the Catholic Church campaigns against sex education that teaches the value of contraception. Bishop Korir said that only the guilty were afraid and resorted to condoms, and that he wanted “no condom talk” (2003)[26]. Those who are born with it, or are infected with it because a partner unknowingly had it, are not exactly ‘guilty’!

You might think that such crazy Bishops are a phenomenon peculiar to Africa. But the doctrine against condoms comes from the top, and the Vatican’s official long-standing policy is propounded even in Europe and the USA. Pope Benedict, the German head of the Catholic Church from 2005 to 2013, delivered speeches in Africa in 2009 and reiterated, in the 21st century, his stance against condoms:

“Asked about the use of condoms to help tackle the scourge of AIDS, the pope restated, in unusually explicit terms, the church’s position that these are not useful to “overcome” the epidemic, indeed their use actually makes the problem worse. He suggested the disease could be beaten through chastity, abstinence and “correct behaviour”. […] His statement sounded otherworldly at best, and crass and uncaring at worst. Merely wishing away human sexual behaviour does nothing for the potential victims of AIDS, many of whom are innocent under even the most moralistic definition of that word.”

The Economist (2009)[25]

In countries where the authorities are weak, science is ill-established and there are mass social problems, it would help a lot if the Catholic Church, with its powerful social networks, joined in with the efforts to stop the decay of society due to disease and overpopulation (two things that go hand-in-hand). But governments in Africa and South America, not to mention the USA and European countries such as Poland, have to fight against the church on such simple measures as birth control and condom use, and this battle often politicizes the operations of charities and welfare groups.

4. Abortion: How Religion and Rationality Clash

The best ways to prevent abortion are increased education[27], increased (and more equal) chances in life for women, less poverty and fewer legal restrictions on abortion. In developed countries where abortion is legal, rates drop. Where it is illegal or heavily restricted, and where it goes against popular religion’s beliefs, the rates of illegal abortions are high. Millions of women each year suffer from medical complications as the result of having to obtain illegal “back street” abortions; 70,000 of those women die as a result[28].

“A new report by the Guttermacher Institute, a pro-choice think-tank [examines how] prohibitions on abortion are slowly easing, though poor countries remain much tougher than rich ones. Since 1997, 22 places have changed their abortion laws and in 19 of those cases the change was a liberalisation. […] In Western Europe, which has among the most liberal laws in the world, abortion rates are the lowest. Places where abortion is in effect banned, such as Uganda, typically see the highest incidence of abortion.”

The Economist (2009)[28]

The Catholic Church campaigns heavily against abortion as it does against contraception, no matter how much suffering is caused. It does not just limit its interference to matters concerning its own staff or followers, but actively tries to impose its superstitions on any over whom it might have power or influence, such as governments of countries such as the USA, Poland and Italy, and charities. Even when a charity would help a poverty-stricken woman who was raped by a soldier, or when a genetic disease threatens the life of the mother or would render the child’s life unliveable, the Catholic church will still lobby to prevent abortion.

“The Catholic Church has been persecuting Amnesty since it was revealed that the human rights organisation had changed its policy on abortion to support women who were raped and impregnated by enemy soldiers. Catholic schools have been told not to raise funds for Amnesty and Catholic bishops have been advising their parishioners to withdraw their support.”

National Secular Society (2008)[29]

Fundamentalist Christian organisations in the USA are responsible for that country’s strict laws on the matter in many states. The political researcher Andrew Heywood notes the Christian group Moral Majority founded by the famous bigot Jerry Falwell: “since the 1980s its principal energies have been devoted to the campaign against abortion […], homosexuality, pornography, premarital sex and, in the USA at least, the teaching of Darwinian theories of evolution rather than Biblical ‘creationism’ have also been castigated”[30]. Other Christian “religious right” organisations and Christian activist individuals follow similar agendas against abortion and against gay rights[31]. In the UK a notable anti-abortion lobbying group is Christian Action Research and Education (CARE) which has “adopted a broad agenda, and developed sophisticated methods of lobbying and mobilization on moral and welfare issues […], campaigning on medical ethical issues, opposing abortion (although without the militant direct action of counterparts in the USA)”[32].

Anti-abortion activists from 20 European countries jointly run a campaign to de-fund activities including research and development that involve human embryos. Such activists are joined by the likes of the fundamentalist Catholic organisation “European Center for Law and Justice”, which, ironically, seek to undermine law and justice and replace them with theocracy and Catholic rule. The Pope’s vocal support for these groups sees the Catholic Church continue its involvement in anti-abortion and anti-human-rights movements in Europe as well as in the USA, South America and Africa[33].

In the wake of a long series of serious of prolific sexual scandals across Christendom, many have come to suspect that there is something deeply wrong with Christian Biblical dogma on sexuality in general. One author who has published at length on the horrific sex abuses of the church notes that (thankfully) most ordinary Catholics do not subscribe to their own Church’s stance on most issues of sexuality, which must serve to reduce the effective influence of the church:

More and more scholars see the official Catholic position on sexuality as both dangerous and false. […] Large numbers of Catholics simply do not trust the authoritative teachings of the Vatican in matters of sexuality. Contraception, abortion, remarriage after divorce, homosexuality, and masturbation – all areas of strict prohibition according to Vatican teaching – are tolerated as acceptable behaviour by lay Catholics in roughly the same proportion as by members of other denominations.”

Sex, Priests and Power: Anatomy of a Crisis” by Richard Sipe (1995)[34]

Liberal abortion laws have proven to be the best not only for the safety of women and the health of society in general, but are also associated with low rates of abortion. I think that once a society can openly and freely talk about family planning without such things as taboos or religious dogma getting in the way, responsible behaviour can be increased in general.

5. Anti-Abortion Violence and Murder by Fundamentalist Christians in the USA [35]

The USA has a particular problem with fundamentalist Christians, many of whom come to hold strong anti-abortion views. Based on this, violent activists have frequently targeted abortion providers. The following quotes are taken from “Bad Faith: The Danger of Religious Extremism” by Neil J. Kressel (2007):

“Since 1991, there have been seven murders and seventeen attempted murders of abortion providers and their associates. There have been 300 reported death threats, 84 incidents of assault and battery, 99 acts of arson, 967 cases of vandalism, 367 bomb threats, and 15 bombings. On 482 occasions, antiabortion activists have stalked doctors, staff members, or patients. Minor disruptions are more frequent. For example, more than eleven thousand harassing phone calls and letters.[36] […]

Dr. Barnett Slepian was one such stubborn and dedicated physician, and on October 23, 1998, a member of the Army of God, an extremist group, finally delivered his ‘just deserts’. Slepian had returned from synagogue with his wife and four sons. While standing in the kitchen of his home, surrounded by his family, he was shot dead by sniper James Kopp [… who] was also suspected in the earlier shootings of several other abortion providers.[37] […] In an eerie letter to the editor of the Buffalo News written four years before his death, he warned:

“The members of the local non-violent pro-life community may continue to picket my home wearing large ‘Slepian Kills Children’ buttons…. They may also display the six-foot banner with the same quotation at the entrance to my neighborhood…. They may continue to scream that I am a murderer and a killer when I enter clinics at which they ‘peacefully’ exercise their First Amendment Right of freedom of speech…. But please don’t feign surprise, dismay and certainly not innocence when a more volatile and less restrained member of the group decides to react to their inflammatory rhetoric by shooting an abortion provider. They all share the blame.”[38]

[…] The Army of God Web site still triumphantly displays a photograph of Dr. Slepian amid wavy yellow and orange flames. The caption proclaims: ‘Slepian now burning in hell fire where he belongs’. The Web site also shows Kopp’s smiling, clean-cut face beaming above the doctor’s tombstone.[39] […]

Kopp – unlike the majority of violent antiabortion extremists – is Roman Catholic [rather than Protestant]. […] He engaged in clinic protests in the mid-1980s and became associated with two extremist groups, Operation Rescue and Lambs of Christ. Kopp soon became well known among antiabortion extremists. One major protest in 1988 led to his arrest and jailing along with other militants, including Shelley Shannon (who later shot Dr. George Tiller), John Arena (who later committed a butyric acid attack against an abortion clinic), and others. […] Catholicism has been a central part of Kopp’s life, and no doubt the church’s teachings contributed to his view that abortion is murder. A priest, Father Norman Weslin, heads the radically antiabortion Lambs of Christ, for which Kopp was once a chief strategist.[40] […]

Another fanatic, Eric Robert Rudolph, bombed an abortion clinic in Birmingham, Alabama, and in the process killed an off-duty police officer. Rudolph also carried out several other attacks, including one targeting a gay bar and the notorious bombing at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.[41] […]

Paul Hill is the only man ever executed for crimes against abortion providers and, among the extremists, he is an unrivalled candidate for canonization. […] Hill explains how he came to kill Dr. Britton in several articles and his book Mix My Blood with the Blood of the Unborn. The Army of God makes these materials readily available, always picturing Hill with a warm, avuncular grin. Once a Presbyterian minister, religion means everything to Hill. […] He then joined a Reformed Presbyterian church that agreed with him on the doctrinal issue and became very involved in pro-life activism. When another activist shot Dr. David Gunn, Hill called the Phil Donahue Show and compared the act to killing a doctor in a Nazi death camp. Soon after, he appeared on ABC’s Nightline to justify yet another violent attack on an abortion provider. Hill cites scripture frequently but not compulsively.[42] […]

Comments such as these suggest that religious thoughts, feelings, and experiences propel most violent antiabortion activists, and sometimes provide their central inspiration. Far from being impulsive or insane, these extremists contemplate and calculate their terror as a means of achieving what they consider to be a religiously certified objective. Several violent activists equate abortion with murder because they learned precisely this as young Catholics and Protestants. Christian clerics, of course, figure prominently in the Right to Life movement, and some priests and ministers from mainstream denominations still in good standing (e.g., Father Weslin) have spearheaded antiabortion protest movements that employ questionable tactics. One even finds some fringe Christian clergy associated with the Army of God. The Web sites and writings of the antiabortion extremists overflow with biblical quotations and allusions.[43] […]

Operation Rescue’s national director, the Reverend Flip Benham, says that Dr. Slepian murdered ‘countless thousands of innocent children,’ but that his group still does not condone the murder. Many of his followers probably perceive, I think correctly, that he is being disingenuous for legal and political purposes.[44] […]

Reverend Michael Bray wrote the definitive Christian text supporting violent activism. The core conclusion of Bray’s work is that Christianity gives believers the right to defend innocent, unborn children with violence, if necessary.[45] […] Paul Hill has pointed out, not unreasonably, that given the pro-life premises so strongly expressed by the Southern Baptists in their document on the matter, the logic behind their rejection of violence is not entirely convincing.[46]”

Bad Faith: The Danger of Religious Extremism” by Neil J. Kressel (2007)[47]

6. How Faulty Teachings on Sexuality Lead to Faulty Society

“The high child abuse and sexual abuse rates within the Christian priesthood highlight a problem that many religions face: We should not attempt to mould human sexuality around otherworldly religious ideals. Sexual dysfunction always results. Psychologists and sociologists have noted the association between extreme religious fervour and psycho-sexual problems (the former causing the latter), and the highly negative stance that many monotheistic religions take towards sexuality in general have contributed to a general malaise amongst their lay adherents, and a serious pandemic of abuse amongst professional religionists. The religious attitude towards religion is to behave like an ostrich and stick its head in the sand, hoping that theology can override biological truth, but merely making its victims unable to cope with adult sexuality. Witness the hateful and confusing statements that Christians and Muslims make about homosexuals, the anti-contraception stance that the Catholic church has in an over-crowded world ridden with disease, the harmful and simplistic rejection of abortion and the patriarchal dominance over women that has gone hand-in-hand with traditional religion on every continent.

In the modern world, many modern popular movements provide an alternative to traditional religions, and have enshrined normal sexuality. The secular world merely lets sexuality remain natural, and the New Age movement amongst many others, actively engage sexuality. The results have been much more positive and healthy than those of the classical monotheistic religions. This is one reason why countries that have liberal laws on abortion also have much lower rates of abortion than highly religious countries that restrict abortion heavily. An atmosphere of taboo and restriction serves limits responsible sexual behaviour. Rather than an ostrich, be a peacock!”

The Peacock vs. the Ostrich – Religious Behaviour and Sexuality: 5. Conclusions: Be a Peacock (Secular Society and New Religious Movements Excepted)” by Vexen Crabtree (2008)

There are many who tie confused teachings on sexuality with sexual deviancy in society; the same logic applies to the suppression of women. In a recent talk at the Women Worldwide Advancing Freedom & Equality event, the invited speaker Naomi Phillips spoke on women’s reproductive rights and said that although secularism doesn’t guarantee fair rights for women, it is still a necessary prerequisite simply because of the limiting harm that religion has so far done; the biggest threat to such rights still come from strict religion-based lobby groups.[48]

Footnotes

[1] Singh S and Darroch JE, Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits of Contraceptive Services – Estimates for 2012, New York, USA, published by the Guttmacher Institute and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (2012). Summarized on the guttmacher.org article “Costs and Benefits of Investing in Contraceptive Services in the Developing World“. Accessed and added to this page on 2015 Feb 22.
[2] Tucker (2011) p830. Added to this page on 2015 Mar 21.
[3] Russell (1957) p57-58 (plus editor’s comment).
[4] Mottier (2008) digital location 943-47: “The prominent American birth control campaigner (and eugenicist) Margaret Sanger, founder of the American Birth Control League in 1921, had long called for the development of a pharmaceutical birth control product, meeting up with scientists in 1950 to explore possibilities. Sanger joined forces with the philanthropist Katherine McCormick, who funded the majority of the scientific research and development of the Pill, and from 1960 the modern contraceptive pill, invented by Karl Djerassi, became available to the wider public in the Western world.” Added to this page on 2015 Mar 26.
[5] “What Causes Religion and Superstitions?” by Vexen Crabtree (2013).
[6] Barber, Nigel Ph.D. (2011) article in Psychology Today (2011 Jul 14).
[7] National Secular Society news article “Catholic Church fails to stop Philippines contraception bill” (2012 Dec 18). Accessed 2013 Oct 19. Added to this page 2013 Oct 23.
[8] Multiple sources:
– Fertiliy rate data: “Human Development Report” by United Nations (2013).
– Belief in God, 2004: Disbelief in God (2004). Zuckerman, P. (2007). Atheism: contemporary numbers and patterns. In M. Martin (Ed.), The Cambridge Companion to Atheism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. In Lynn et al. (2009).
– Religiosity rate: Gallup (2009).
[9] The Economist (2008 Jan 26) article “The world’s silver lining” p27. Added to this page on 2008 Apr 03.
[10] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 916-20. Added to this page on 2015 Apr 10.
[11] Mottier (2008) digital location 1292-94. Added to this page on 2015 Mar 26.
[12] Mottier (2008) digital location 1295-98. Added to this page on 2015 Mar 26.
[13] Wikipedia article accessed 2007 Jul. The article contains two relevant references:
– 25. DiCenso A, Guyatt G, Willan A, Griffith L (2002). “Interventions to reduce unintended pregnancies among adolescents: systematic review of randomised controlled trials.” BMJ 324 (7351): 1426. PMID 12065267 www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/….
– 26. American Psychological Association (February 23, 2005). Based on the research, comprehensive sex education is more effective at stopping the spread of HIV infection, says APA committee www.apa.org/…. Press release retrieved on 2006 Aug 11.
[14] The Economist (2007 Sep 22) article “AIDS: Time to grow up” p103.
[15] The Economist (2007 Sep 22) article “AIDS: Time to grow up” p103.
[16] National Secular Society, National Secular Society (2009 Jul 24) newsletter “The truth at last – abstinence-only programmes make the situation worse”. Added to this page on 2009 Nov 26.
[17] Peel (1965).
[18] www.catholic.com “Catholic Answers: Birth Control” (2004 Aug 10), accessed and added to this page on 2007 Oct 14.
[19] Momen (1999) p497.
[20] The Vatican (1968 Jul 25). Full text online “Humanae Vitae: Encyclical of Pope Paul VI on the Regulation of Birth” accessed 2007 Jan 05.
[21] Wilson (1966) p89. This refers to the Casti Connubii encyclical.
[22] Wilson (1966) p86-88.
[23] National Secular Society, Newsline (2003 Apr 04).
[24] National Secular Society, Newsline (2003 Mar 14).
[25] The Economist (2009 Mar 21) article “The pope in Africa: Sex and sensibility” p16. Added to this page on 2010 Jun 19.
[26] National Secular Society, Newsline (2003 Mar 28).
[27] UN (2013) p6. Added to this page on 2015 Apr 10.
[28] The Economist (2009 Oct 17) article “Abortion: A bit better”. Added to this page on 2009 Dec 24.
[29] NSS (2008) newsletter (2008 Apr 18). Added to this page on 2009 Dec 24.
[30] Heywood (2003) p99. Added to this page on 2009 Dec 25.
[31] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1053-54.
[32] Wolffe (2002) p37. CARE was previously known as the National Festival of Light. Added to this page on 2013 Oct 23.
[33] National Secular Society news article “Pope gives personal backing to Europe wide anti-abortion push” (2013 Feb 06). Accessed 2013 Oct 19. Added to this page 2013 Oct 23.
[34] Sipe (1995) p7.
[35] Added to this page on 2015 Apr 10.
[36] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 926-30
[37] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 931-35
[38] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1120-24
[39] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 935-36
[40] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 947-51,960-61
[41] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 972-74
[42] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1005-15
[43] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1026-31
[44] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1063-65
[45] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1068-69
[46] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3, digital location 1118-19
[47] Kressel, N. (2007) Chapter 3.
[48] The British Humanist Association Newsletter mailing (2011 Issue 2) p3. Added to this page on 2011 May 04. Naomi Phillips is head of Public Affairs at the British Humanist Association.

Vexen Crabtree has contributed chapters to multiple books on religious studies, and has otherwise contributed to and been referenced in over 38 books on various subjects pertaining to religion and society and included as Recommended Reading for UK A-level students. He have appeared on various TV and radio programs debating religious philosophy and representing alternative religions and lifestyles. You can find him on Facebook.

Is the Earth over-populated? August 9th 2020

In 1800 the world’s population was around 1 billion people. Since then it has increased more than sevenfold to reach over 7.5 billion in 2017 (see figure 1), and is forecast to top 10 billion by 2050. Will population growth inevitably continue? Will it level off over the long term? Should we try to reduce or stop this growth?

Simply put, the world’s population is increasing because the number of births outnumber deaths by three to one. A surplus of births first occurred two centuries ago in Europe and North America, when mortality started to decline. This marked the beginning of what scientists call the demographic transition. This transition subsequently spread to the rest of the planet as social and economic progress, combined with advances in hygiene and medicine, began to reduce mortality rates.

Rapid population growth in Africa

Figure 2: World population growth rates1700-2100. Gilles Pison, based on United Nations data, CC BY

Still, the annual population growth rate actually peaked half a century ago at more than 2%, and has fallen by half since then, to 1.1% in 2017 (see figure 2). This trend should continue in coming decades because fertility is decreasing at global level, from 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 today. In 2017, the regions where fertility remains high (above 3 children per woman) include most countries of intertropical Africa and an area stretching from Afghanistan to northern India and Pakistan (see map below). These are the regions that will drive future world population growth.

A key trend in future decades will be population growth in Africa. Including North Africa, the continent’s population could quadruple over the next century, rising from 1 billion inhabitants in 2010 to an estimated 2.5 billion in 2050 and more than 4 billion in 2100, despite the negative impact of the AIDS epidemic and other factors. While, globally speaking, one person in six currently lives in Africa, the proportion will probably be more than one in three a century from now. Growth should be especially rapid in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population may rise from just over 800 million in 2010 to 4 billion in 2100.

World fertility (2017), average number of children per woman

Figure 3: World fertility (2017), average number of children per woman. Gilles Pison, based on United Nations data., CC BY

What will happen in the coming decades?

These figures are projections, and no one can predict what the future will bring. That said, demographic projections are quite reliable for forecasting population size over the next 10, 20 or 30 years. Most of the people who will be alive in 2050 have already been born, their number is known and we can estimate quite accurately the proportion among those currently alive who will die. Likewise, the women who will bear children over the next 20 years are already alive today, and can be counted. By estimating their potential fertility we can determine the number of future births with relative accuracy.

It would be unrealistic to imagine that population trends can be modified over the short term. Depopulation is not an option. Indeed, how could it possibly be achieved? Through increased mortality? No one hopes for that. Through mass emigration to Mars? Unrealistic. Through a drastic and durable decrease in fertility to below replacement level (2.1 children)? This is already taking place in many parts of the world, as couples decide to have fewer children so as to give them the best chances for a long and fulfilling life.

But for reasons of demographic inertia, this does not result in an immediate population decline. Even if world fertility were just 1.6 children per women, as is the case in Europe and China, the population would continue to increase for several more decades; there are still large numbers of adults of childbearing age who were born when fertility was still high, so the number of births also remains high. The proportion of old and very old people is very small, on the other hand, so deaths are far less numerous.

The question of fertility decline

Demographers were taken by surprise in the 1960s and 1970s when surveys revealed the onset of a sharp decline in fertility in many countries of Asia and Latin America, and demographic projections for these regions of the world were revised strongly downward.

Another more recent surprise concerns intertropical Africa. Fertility decline in the region was expected to begin later than in Asia and Latin America because of slower social and economic development. But it was assumed that, while delayed, the transition would follow the standard pattern, with a decline similar to that observed in other regions of the Global South. This is indeed the case in North and southern Africa, but not in intertropical Africa, where the decline is occurring more slowly. This explains the upward revision of projections for Africa, a continent which could be home to more than a third of the world’s population by 2100.

Figure 4: Fertility-rate trends by world region. Gilles Pison, based on United Nations data., CC BY

Fertility is in fact decreasing in intertropical Africa, but among the educated and urban populations and not in rural areas where most of the population still lives. While the fertility decline is still slower than that observed some decades ago in Asia and Latin America (see figure 4), the reason does not lie in an unwillingness to use contraception.

While most rural families have yet to adopt a two-child family model, they would prefer to have fewer children and to space them further apart. They are willing to use contraception for this purpose, but the necessary services are not available to them. National birth-control programmes exist but are ineffective because they lack resources and, above all, because their organisers and the personnel responsible for implementing them are unenthusiastic. Many are not convinced of the advantages of birth control, even at government level, even if this is not the official line adopted with respect to international organisations

This is one of the differences with respect to Asia and Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s, and one of the obstacles to faster fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa.

Long-term outlook: explosion, implosion or equilibrium?

Beyond the next 50 years, however, the future is much more uncertain and there is no established forecasting model.

The demographic transition, which has served well to predict changes over the last two centuries, will be of little use for this distant future. There is much uncertainty about future fertility. If the small family becomes a dominant model over the long term, with mean fertility of less than two children per women, then the world population, after peaking at 10 billion, will gradually decrease to the point of extinction.

But another scenario is possible, in which fertility recovers in the countries where it is now very low, ultimately stabilising at more than two children per woman worldwide. This would result in continuous growth, and again in the extinction of the human race, this time due to overpopulation. If we cannot resign ourselves to these catastrophic scenarios of extinction through under- or over-population, then we must imagine a scenario of ultimate equilibrium.

It is lifestyle that matters

Of course, humans must start thinking today about the need for long-term equilibrium, but it is the next few decades that are of most urgent concern.

The world population will inevitably increase by 2 to 3 billion between now and 2050 because of demographic inertia that no one can prevent. Nonetheless, we have the power to change yet now our way of living – and there is an urgent need to do so – by ensuring greater respect for the environment and more efficient use of natural resources. All in all, the long-term survival of humankind depends more on its choice of lifestyle than on its population size.

The Great Replacement August 1st 2020

Robert Cook

Old Third World population is booming, egged on by the west who want cheap labour, so prop up dictators and religious ignorance bigotry and utter stupidity. So called ethnic minorities are the world majority, badly educated and at the heart of world overpopulation and disease. Werstern feminism has created aggressive warrior women and male impotence. The white population is collpasing, along with its dreadful health and education services.

Covid has exposed much that the hedonistic pseudo liberal pseudo democratic ruling classs who hog most of the wealth, lying and cheating, making war and fake diversity laws to protect their positions. The war on China is about the elite fighting an absurd war to hang on to power, privilege and profit- what I call the Three PEES.

Fake liberals placating religious idiocy and bigotry in Croke Park Dublin yesterday. They can’t let go of the ‘go forth and multiply’ Old Testament.Koran mantra, protected from criticism or doubt by fake liberal elitists and fools.

In less than a lifetime, China will be half the nation it is today thanks to a rapid population collapse. Greying states in Europe and across the globe will compete for migrants from a still-growing Africa, while others consider turning back the clock on women’s rights in a desperate attempt to save their dying societies with baby booms.

This vision of the world in 2100 is set out in a landmark study that has concluded that the age of an ever-expanding human population is coming to a close faster than previously thought, with massive implications for the global economy and the environment.

Rather than increasing throughout the century, as previously assumed, the study from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University.

A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth, according to biologist Prof Paul Ehrlich.

In May, it will be 50 years since the eminent biologist published his most famous and controversial book, The Population Bomb. But Ehrlich remains as outspoken as ever.

Prof Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University.

Prof Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

The world’s optimum population is less than two billion people – 5.6 billion fewer than on the planet today, he argues, and there is an increasing toxification of the entire planet by synthetic chemicals that may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change.

Ehrlich also says an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen”.

The Population Bomb, written with his wife Anne Ehrlich in 1968, predicted “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” in the 1970s – a fate that was avoided by the green revolution in intensive agriculture.

Many details and timings of events were wrong, Paul Ehrlich acknowledges today, but he says the book was correct overall.

“Population growth, along with over-consumption per capita, is driving civilisation over the edge: billions of people are now hungry or micronutrient malnourished, and climate disruption is killing people.”

Ehrlich has been at Stanford University since 1959 and is also president of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, which works “to reduce the threat of a shattering collapse of civilisation”.

“It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems,” he says. “As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”

It is the combination of high population and high consumption by the rich that is destroying the natural world, he says. Research published by Ehrlich and colleagues in 2017 concluded that this is driving a sixth mass extinction of biodiversity, upon which civilisation depends for clean air, water and food.

Britain wasted its German inheritance, giving way to the Celtic grovelling working class internecine fawning to migrants and their needs, la la land that we have today. As for the Hohenzollern Saxe Coburg Goethes who ruled Britain’s Empire, Germany and Russia in the run up to World War One, all they have ever cared about is money and power.

Their elitist imperialist in fighting caused two World Wars, killing millions of white men, bereaving women and children, with little after care. The likes of Prince Charles, offspring hapless Harry, Andrew, Meghan and the rest, have no right to an opinion. Like Islam and Catholicism, these OCD mindsets are an obstacle to progress. Until these realities are faced, then there is no hope. Robert Cook

Fast-Growing Mini-Forests Spring up in Europe to Aid Climate

July 22nd 2020

Miyawaki forests are denser and said to be more biodiverse than other kinds of woods. Hannah Lewis

Tiny, dense forests are springing up around Europe as part of a movement aimed at restoring biodiversity and fighting the climate crisis.

Often sited in schoolyards or alongside roads, the forests can be as small as a tennis court. They are based on the work of the Japanese botanist Akira Miyawaki, who has planted more than 1,000 such forests in Japan, Malaysia and elsewhere.

Advocates for the method say the miniature forests grow 10 times faster and become 30 times denser and 100 times more biodiverse than those planted by conventional methods. This result is achieved by planting saplings close together, three per square metre, using native varieties adapted to local conditions. A wide variety of species – ideally 30 or more – are planted to recreate the layers of a natural forest.

Scientists say such ecosystems are key to meeting climate goals, estimating that natural forests can store 40 times more carbon than single-species plantations. The Miyawaki forests are designed to regenerate land in far less time than the 70-plus years it takes a forest to recover on its own.

“This is a great thing to do,” said Eric Dinerstein, a wildlife scientist who co-authored a recent paper calling for half of the Earth’s surface to be protected or managed for nature conservation to avoid catastrophic climate change. “So this could be another aspect for suburban and urban areas, to create wildlife corridors through contiguous ribbons of mini-forest.”

The mini-forests could attract migratory songbirds, Dinerstein said. “Songbirds are made from caterpillars and adult insects, and even small pockets of forests, if planted with native species, could become a nutritious fast-food fly-in site for hungry birds.”

In 2017, researchers at Wageningen University in the Netherlands monitored newly planted mini-forests and concluded that they “increase the biodiversity compared to the nearby forest. Both the number of species groups and the number of individuals is generally higher than in the reference forests.”

The higher biodiversity is due partly to the forests’ young age and openness, explained Fabrice Ottburg, an animal ecologist who led the Wageningen study. This allows more sunlight to reach flowering plants that attract pollinators. Diversity is also boosted by planting multiple species, which “provide more variety in food and shelter for a higher diversity of animals like insects, snails, butterflies, amphibians, bugs, grasshoppers”, Ottburg said.

In the Netherlands, the conservation group IVN Nature Education has helped cities and households to plant 100 Miyawaki-style forests since 2015. It is on track to more than double that number by 2022 and is working on similar efforts in a dozen other countries. Assorted groups in Belgium and France have recently created at least 40 mini-forests.

The first in France was planted in March 2018 beside a busy four-lane road on the edge of Paris. The dense thicket was intended to reduce noise and filter air for the adjacent neighbourhood. On the day of planting, 40 people gathered with 31 species of saplings to bring new life to ground that had been prepared with compost from local horse stables.

Two years earlier, Enrico Fusto and Damien Saraceni had applied for funding from Paris’s participatory budget, a scheme that asks residents for ideas about how to spend 5% of the city’s funds. The pair proposed mini-forests, saying they could help increase the level of tree cover in the city, which is currently less than 10%, much lower than many other major cities. “Each community can be the protagonist of its own restoration story,” said Fusto.

In Toulouse, a mini-forest group planted 1,200 saplings on a 400 sq metre patch in March.

Nicolas de Brabandère, a Belgian naturalist and founder of Urban Forests, began planting Miyawaki-style forests in 2016, organising volunteers and local authorities to plant 300 saplings on a grassy strip of land near a road. Now his first forest is 3 metres tall, its floor a thick layer of humus.

De Brabandère believes the participatory nature and speed of a mini-forest is what appeals to people, and he predicts a bright future for the movement. “Every time I tell the story, everybody likes it,” he said. “So I have a good feeling the trend will continue.”

More from The Guardian

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity July 22nd 2020

James Hamblin ‘The Atlantic’

The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.

dward Lorenz was just out of college when he was recruited into World War II. He was assigned to be a weather forecaster, despite having no experience in meteorology. What Lorenz knew was math.

So he started experimenting with differential equations, trying to make predictions based on patterns in data on past temperatures and pressures. One day, while testing his system, he repeated a simulation with a few decimals rounded off in the data. To his surprise, a radically different future emerged.

He called this finding “the butterfly effect.” In a complex model, where each day’s weather influences the next day’s, a tweak in initial conditions can have wild downstream consequences. The butterfly effect became central to the emerging field of chaos theory, which has since been applied to economics, sociology, and many other subjects, in attempts to deconstruct complex phenomena. That field is now helping predict the future of the pandemic—in particular, how it ends.

Read: How the pandemic will end

Chaos theory applies neatly to the spread of the coronavirus, in that seemingly tiny decisions or differences in reaction speed can have inordinate consequences. Effects can seem random when, in fact, they trace to discrete decisions made long prior. For example, the United States has surpassed 125,000 deaths from COVID-19. Having suppressed the virus early, South Korea has had only 289. Vietnam’s toll sits at zero. Even when differences from place to place appear random, or too dramatic to pin entirely on a failed national response, they are not.

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There is enormous variation even within the U.S., which could also seem chaotic. Some places took limited measures and were barely hit; others locked down but suffered greatly. New York City has been slowly reopening since early June, but despite that—and despite mass outdoor gatherings in the throes of civil unrest over the past six weeks—the city has not seen even a small increase in daily reported cases. By contrast, other cities that have attempted to reopen have seen incapacitating surges.

But just as barely predictable meteorological events arise from totally predictable laws of physics, the complex dynamics of a pandemic center on an extremely limited set of concepts in basic viral biology. Early failures to test and shut down in the U.S. have been amplified through the butterfly effect. Current decisions will be as well.

When phenomena appear chaotic, mathematical modelers make it their job to find the underlying order. Once models can accurately describe the real world, as some now do, they gain the predictive power to give clearer glimpses into likely futures.

In mid-February, the Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told me that this virus could infect most people in the United States if the country’s leaders did not take action. At the time, the U.S. had only a handful of confirmed cases. Few people were imagining the future Lipsitch saw—in which millions, even hundreds of millions, of Americans could fall ill. This was, at least in part, because we weren’t testing for the virus.

Read: You’re likely to get the coronavirus

Lipsitch even received some criticism from scientists who felt uncomfortable with his estimate, since there were so little data to go on. Indeed, at that point, many futures were still possible. But when a virus spreads as quickly and effectively as this one was spreading in February—killing many while leaving others who had few or no symptoms to spread the disease—that virus can be expected to run its course through a population that does not take dramatic measures.

Now, based on the U.S. response since February, Lipsitch believes that we’re still likely to see the virus spread to the point of becoming endemic. That would mean it is with us indefinitely, and the current pandemic would end when we reach levels of “herd immunity,” traditionally defined as the threshold at which enough people in a group have immune protection so the virus can no longer cause huge spikes in disease.

The concept of herd immunity comes from vaccination policy, in which it’s used to calculate the number of people who need to be vaccinated in order to ensure the safety of the population. But a coronavirus vaccine is still far off, and last month, Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that, because of a “general anti-science, anti-authority, anti-vaccine feeling,” the U.S. is “unlikely” to achieve herd immunity even after a vaccine is available.

Back in February, Lipsitch gave a very rough estimate that, absent intervention, herd immunity might happen after 40 to 70 percent of the population had been infected. The idea of hitting this level of infection implied grim forecasts about disease and death. The case-fatality rate for COVID-19 is now very roughly 1 percent overall. In the absolute simplest, linear model, if 70 percent of the world were to get infected, that would mean more than 54 million deaths.

But the effects of the coronavirus are not linear. The virus affects individuals and populations in very different ways. The case-fatality rate varies drastically between adults under 40 and the elderly. This same characteristic variability of the virus—what makes it so dangerous in early stages of outbreaks—also gives a clue as to why those outbreaks could burn out earlier than initially expected. In countries with uncontained spread of the virus, such as the U.S., exactly what the herd-immunity threshold turns out to be could make a dramatic difference in how many people fall ill and die. Without a better plan, this threshold—the percentage of people who have been infected that would constitute herd immunity—seems to have become central to our fates.

Some mathematicians believe that it’s much lower than initially imagined. At least, it could be, if we choose the right future.

Gabriela Gomes studies chaos. Specifically, patterns in nonlinear dynamics. She was drawn to the field by something called frailty variation—why the same diseases manifest so differently from one person to the next. She uses mathematics to deconstruct the chains of events that can lead two people with the same disease to have wildly different outcomes.

So with all its apparently chaotic eccentricities, the coronavirus was an ideal challenge for Gomes, a professor at the University of Strathclyde, in Glasgow, Scotland. For the past few months, she has been collaborating with an international group of mathematicians to run models that incorporate the many variations in how this virus seems to be affecting people. Her goal has been to move as far away from simple averages as possible, and to incorporate as many of the disparate effects of the virus as possible when making new forecasts.

In normal times, herd immunity is calculated based on a standardized intervention with predictable results: vaccination. Everyone is exposed to the same (or very similar) immune-generating viral components. We are able to calculate what percentage of people need that exposure in order to develop meaningful immunity across the population.

This is not the case when a virus is spreading in the real world. Instead, the complexities of real life create what modelers refer to as heterogeneity. People are exposed to different amounts of the virus, in different contexts, via different routes. A virus that is new to the species creates more variety in immune responses. Some of us are more susceptible to being infected, and some are more likely to transmit the virus once infected. Even small differences in individual susceptibility and transmission can, as with any chaos phenomenon, lead to very different outcomes as the effects compound over time, on the scale of a pandemic. As Gomes explains, “There doesn’t need to be a lot of variation in a population for epidemics to slow down quite drastically.”

Read: A devastating new stage of the pandemic

In a pandemic, the heterogeneity of the infectious process also makes forecasting difficult. When you flip a coin, the outcome is not affected by the flips prior. But in dynamic systems, the outcomes are more like those in chess: The next play is influenced by the previous one. Differences in outcome can grow exponentially, reinforcing one another until the situation becomes, through a series of individually predictable moves, radically different from other possible scenarios. You have some chance of being able to predict the first move in a game of chess, but good luck predicting the last.

That’s exactly what Gomes’s work attempts to do. She describes a model in which everyone is equally susceptible to coronavirus infection (a homogeneous model), and a model in which some people are more susceptible than others (a heterogeneous model). Even if the two populations start out with the same average susceptibility to infection, you don’t get the same epidemics. “The outbreaks look similar at the beginning. But in the heterogeneous population, individuals are not infected at random,” she told me. “The highly susceptible people are more likely to get infected first. As a result, the average susceptibility gets lower and lower over time.”

Effects like this—“selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread. When Gomes uses this sort of pattern to model the coronavirus’s spread, the compounding effects of heterogeneity seem to show that the onslaught of cases and deaths seen in initial spikes around the world are unlikely to happen a second time. Based on data from several countries in Europe, she said, her results show a herd-immunity threshold much lower than that of other models.

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

If that proves correct, it would be life-altering news. It wouldn’t mean that the virus is gone. But by Gomes’s estimates, if roughly one out of every five people in a given population is immune to the virus, that seems to be enough to slow its spread to a level where each infectious person is infecting an average of less than one other person. The number of infections would steadily decline. That’s the classic definition of herd immunity. It would mean, for instance, that at 25 percent antibody prevalence, New York City could continue its careful reopening without fear of another major surge in cases.

Read: A guide to staying safe as states reopen

It doesn’t make intuitive sense, Gomes admits, but “the homogenous models just don’t make curves that match the current data,” she said. Dynamic systems develop in complex and unpredictable ways, and she believes that the best we can do is continually update models based on what is happening in the real world. She can’t say why the threshold in her models is consistently at or below 20 percent, but it is. “If heterogeneity isn’t the cause,” she said, “then I’d like for someone to explain what is.”

At Stockholm University, Tom Britton, the dean of mathematics and physics, thinks that a 20 percent threshold is unlikely, but not impossible. His lab has also been building epidemiological models based on data from around the globe. He believes that variation in susceptibility and exposure to the virus clearly seems to be reducing estimates for herd immunity. Britton and his colleagues recently published their model, demonstrating the effect, in Science.

“If there is a large variability of susceptibility among humans, then herd immunity could be as low as 20 percent,” Britton told me. But there’s reason to suspect that people do not have such dramatically disparate susceptibility to the coronavirus. High degrees of variability are more common in things such as sexually transmitted infections, where a person with 100 partners a year is far more susceptible than someone celibate. Respiratory viruses tend to be more equal-opportunity invaders. “I don’t think it will happen at 20 percent,” Britton said. “Between 35 and 45 percent—I think that would be a level where spreading drops drastically.”

Models like Britton’s and Gomes’s also assume that, after infection, people obtain immunity. This is a clear caveat that all the researchers make. COVID-19 is a new disease, so no one can be sure that infected people become immune reliably, or how long immunity lasts. But Britton noted that there are no clear instances of double infections so far, which suggests that this virus creates immunity for at least some meaningful length of time, as most viruses do.

Lipsitch also believes that heterogeneity is important to factor into any model. It was one reason he updated his prediction, not long after we spoke in February, of what the herd-immunity threshold would be. Instead of 40 to 70 percent, he lowered it to 20 to 60 percent. When we spoke last week, he said he still stands by that, but he is skeptical that the number lands close to the 20 percent end of the range. “I think it’s unlikely,” he said, but added, “This virus is proving there can be orders-of-magnitude differences in attack rates, depending on political and societal decisions, which I don’t know how to forecast.”

“I think we all agree that heterogeneity is important,” says Kate Langwig, a professor at Virginia Tech. She studied at Harvard under Lipsitch, and was also mentored by Gomes. Biological variations in susceptibility could come down to factors as simple as who has more nose hair, or who talks the loudest and most explosively, and Langwig shares the belief that these factors can create heterogeneity in susceptibility and transmission. Those effects can compound to dramatically change the math behind predictions for the future.

But she declines to endorse any particular numeric threshold for herd immunity. She’s not comfortable with the idea of a single number at all. What’s important to her, rather, is that people are not misled by the idea of herd immunity. In the context of vaccination, herd-immunity thresholds are relatively fixed and predictable. In the context of an ongoing pandemic, thinking of this threshold as some static concept can be dangerously misleading.

Read: The U.K.’s coronavirus ‘herd immunity’ debacle

“During the last few months, we’ve started talking about ‘natural herd immunity’ and what would be used to block future waves,” says Shweta Bansal, an associate professor at Georgetown University who studies how social interactions influence infectious diseases. She worries that many people conflate academic projections about reaching herd immunity with a “let it run wild” fatalism. “My view is that trying to take that route would lead to mass death and devastation,” she says.

Indeed, letting a new, rapidly spreading virus run unchecked in a population with zero immunity could mean that nearly everyone in a given location gets infected. With vaccination, the herd-immunity threshold is vital to guiding policy and medical practice: If about 90 percent of people are vaccinated against measles, for example, then, accounting for waning antibodies and variable immune responses, it’s safe to assume that 60 or 70 percent are protected and the population isn’t at risk of an outbreak. But that concept doesn’t clearly apply when a highly contagious virus hits a population with zero immunity. Left totally unchecked, Bansal says, the percentage of infected people could go even higher than 70 percent.

By definition, dynamic systems don’t deal in static numbers. Any such herd-immunity threshold is context-dependent and constantly shifting. It will change over time and space. It varies depending on the basic reproduction number—the average number of new infections caused by an infected individual. During the early stage of an outbreak of a new virus (to which no one has immunity), that number will be higher. The number is skewed by super-spreading events, such as when one person in a choir infects 50 others. And the number in a dense city such as New York should be expected to be higher than that in rural Alaska. “Within certain populations that lack heterogeneity, like within a nursing home or school, you may even see the herd-immunity threshold be above 70 percent,” Bansal says. If a population average led people in those settings to get complacent, there could be needless death.

Read: The U.S. is repeating its deadliest pandemic mistake

For all the mysteries of how this virus affects our bodies and immune systems, and all the heterogeneity involved in the complex modelling of outcomes, Bansal believes that heterogeneity of behaviour is the key determinant of our futures. “That magic number that we’re describing as a herd-immunity threshold very much depends on how individuals behave,” Bansal says, since R0 clearly changes with behaviors. On average, the R0 of the corona virus currently seems to be between 2 and 3, according to Lipsitch. But if we all sealed ourselves in isolation pods today, the R0 would drop to zero. There would be no more deaths.

“COVID-19 is the first disease in modern times where the whole world has changed their behavior and disease spread has been reduced,” Britton noted. That made old models and numbers obsolete. Social distancing and other reactive measures changed the R0 value, and they will continue to do so. The virus has certain immutable properties, but there is nothing immutable about how many infections it causes in the real world.

What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.

Essentially, at present, New York City—where I live—might be said to be at a version of herd immunity, or at least safe equilibrium. Our case counts are very low. They have been low for weeks. Our antibody counts mean that a not-insignificant number of people are effectively removed from the chain of transmission. Many more can be effectively excluded because they’re staying isolated and distanced, wearing masks, and being hygienically vigilant. If we keep living just as we are, another big wave of disease seems unlikely.

Read: Don’t close parks. Open up the streets.

Lipsitch stands by the February projection that Americans are likely to get the coronavirus, but not because that’s the only possible future. In other countries, it isn’t the case. “I think it no longer seems impossible that Switzerland or Germany could remain near where they are in terms of cases, meaning not very much larger outbreaks, until there’s a vaccine,” he said. They seem to have the will and systems in place to keep their economies closed enough to maintain their current equilibrium.

Other wealthy countries could hypothetically create societies that are effectively immune to further surges, where the effective herd-immunity threshold is low. Even in the U.S., it’s not too late to create a world in which you are not likely to get the coronavirus. We can wear masks and enable people to stay housed and fed without taking up dangerous work. But, judging by the decisions U.S. leaders have made so far, it seems that few places in the country will choose to live this way. Many cities and states will push backwards into an old way of life, where the herd-immunity threshold is high. Dangerous decisions will be amplified by the dynamic systems of society. People will travel and seed outbreaks in places that have worked tirelessly to contain the virus. In some cases, a single infected person will indirectly lead to hundreds or thousands of deaths.

We have the wealth in this country to care for people, and to set the herd-immunity threshold where we choose. Parts of the world are illuminating a third way forward, something in between total lockdown and simply resuming the old ways of life. It happens through individual choices and collective actions, re imagining new ways of living, and having the state support and leadership to make those ways possible. For as much attention as we give to the virus, and to drugs and our immune systems, the variable in the system is us. There will only be as much chaos as we allow

World population to decline in 2100 contrary to UN projections, says new study July 17th 2020

AFP 2 days ago Watergate scandal in Rajasthan: BJP Sam Mendes’ award-winning film 1917 goes live on SonyLIV a group of people in a field: World population to decline in 2100 contrary to UN projections, says new study © Provided by The Statesman World population to decline in 2100 contrary to UN projections, says new study

Earth will be home to 8.8 billion souls in 2100, two billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published Wednesday that foresees new global power alignments shaped by declining fertility rates and greying populations. By century’s end, 183 of 195 countries — barring an influx of immigrants — will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet.

More than 20 countries — including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea, and Poland — will see their numbers diminish by at least half.

China’s will fall nearly that much, from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years. Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some three billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India’s 1.1 billion.

“These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa,” lead author Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, told AFP.

“However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy.”

For high-income countries in this category, the best solutions for sustaining population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children, the study concluded.

“However, in the face of declining population there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences,” Murray cautioned.

“It is imperative that women’s freedom and rights are at the top of every government’s development agenda.”

Social services and healthcare systems will need to be overhauled to accommodate much older populations.

As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under five is forecast to decline by more than 40 percent, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.

At the other end of the spectrum, 2.37 billion people — more than a quarter of the global population — will be over 65 years old by then.

Those over 80 will balloon from about 140 million today to 866 million.

Sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working-age population will also pose huge challenges in many countries.

“Societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers,” noted Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at the IHME.

The number of people of working age in China, for example, will plummet from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century — a 62 percent drop.

The decline in India is projected to be less steep, from 762 to 578 million.

In Nigeria, by contrast, the active labour force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.

These tectonic shifts will also reshuffle the pecking order in terms of economic clout, the researchers forecast.

– A new multipolar world –

By 2050, China’s gross domestic product will overtake that of the United States, but fall back into second place by 2100, they predict.

India’s GDP will rise to take the number three spot, while Japan, Germany, France and the UK will stay among the world’s 10 largest economies.

Brazil is projected to fall in ranking from eighth today to 13th, and Russia from the number 10 spot to 14th. Historical powers Italy and Spain, meanwhile, decline from the top 15 to 25th and 28th, respectively.

Indonesia could become the 12th largest economy globally, while Nigeria — currently 28th — is projected to crack the top 10.

“By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers,” said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining “radical shifts in geopolitical power.”

Until now, the United Nations — which forecasts 8.5, 9.7 and 10.9 billion people in 2030, 2050 and 2100, respectively — has virtually had a monopoly in projecting global population.

The difference between the UN and IHME figures hinges crucially on fertility rates. The so-called “replacement rate” for a stable population is 2.1 births per woman.

UN calculations assume that countries with low fertility today will see those rates increase, on average, to about 1.8 children per woman over time, said Murray.

“Our analysis suggests that as women become more educated and have access to reproductive health services, they choose to have less than 1.5 children on average,” he explained by email.

“Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.”

Founded in 2007 and supported by the Bill and & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME had become a global reference for health statistics, especially its annual Global Burden of Disease reports.

Comment Completeley pointless report, except for propaganda. Obviously the Malthusian factors of war, diesease and famine are already kicking in. this is one of those ‘Now for something completely different’ moments.

I just tried to access MSN’s take on Leicester’s lockdown. I was told I was locked out for legal reasons, because I was accessing from a European location.

That’s the British and European Police State, which we little people pay for. The lower orders will pay more and more for the rich to benefit from lockdown fears and hysteria. Apparently we can return to total or partial lockdown whenever the dictators – guided by the science ( sic )- feel like it. Robert Cook

Africa still base of empires by proxy 265 million worldwide at risk of starvation , Elite Wars and Covid Con. July 17th 2020

A family of 44 children in Uganda

The EU has long frowned at China’s action in Africa for not requiring respect for human rights as a condition for aid and thus promoting a Chinese-inspired authoritarian Africa. But in recent years the EU has not been better, writes Fabian Wagner.

Fabian Wagner is a former co-spokesperson of the Federation of Young Greens (FYEG).

In early September, nearly 50 African leaders followed China’s invitation to Beijing to secure their share of the $60 billion in development aid Beijing has promised the continent of the “Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.”

The European reaction to this summit and other instances of Africa-China cooperation is very interesting. News and politicians warn of a “new form of colonialism”. The main point of critique is that Chinese support does not require respect for human rights as a condition for aid and thus promotes a Chinese-inspired authoritarian Africa.

With all this criticism, one could almost forget that it was not China that has been exploiting and destroying African social, economic and political systems for centuries, but Europe, and that support for dictators and tyrants does not come primarily from China, but from Europe. To stop refugees, almost no deal is too dirty for Europe’s liking, no government too cruel.

China has been investing heavily in Africa for a long time. Whether in East, West, South or North Africa, there is barely any large infrastructure project on the continent that doesn’t feature the distinctive placards with Chinese characters.

Roads in West Africa, conference centers in Rwanda, the shining new headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa, rails in East Africa: China invests everywhere. Indeed, human rights concerns are irrelevant. How would they matter?

China itself is an authoritarian state that monitors its citizens at every turn and does not tolerate dissent. That the Chinese government does not criticise Ethiopia spying on its own citizens shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.

The European “irritation”, or sometimes even “outrage”, in the face of these developments, however, is more than just bigoted. Europe’s heads of state and government regularly comment, as do European media on Chinese initiatives worldwide, including in Africa.

Almost always there is a contrast between the supposedly “benevolent European development aid” and the “dangerous Chinese interference”. In development cooperation, governments like to point to strong checks and balances.

“Do no harm” approach, “Impact Assessments”, even a manual for gender – development agencies are willing to present long lists of methods that allegedly avoid negative impacts on the project regions.

The development agencies of many big Western governments even go beyond simply avoiding negative influences and pretend to work actively on the subject of “good governance”.

Listening to these glossy presentations, one could almost be under the impression that European development aid promotes democracy and the rule of law in Africa.

This impression is so far from the truth, you could almost call it malicious deception or how people use to say today: “fake news”. In truth, Europe is not afraid to work with even the worst regimes.

Through programmes under the euphemistic label “fighting the root causes of migration“, support is given in various forms to regimes and governments which are no better than China when it comes to issues like human rights, press freedom or the rule of law – sometimes, they even outcompete China.

Countries like, ”Africa’s North Korea” – the East African state of Eritrea – has been restituted to the rang of a project country in the context of anti-migration projects, after it has been a pariah for decades due to the incredibly cruel regime of President Afewerki.

“Better Migration Management” with friendly support by Europe, now in a state, where young men are threatened by lifelong military service under miserable conditions, a state that is monitoring its inhabitants at every turn, shooting at people on the border, as they did back then in Communist Eastern Germany to everybody’s outrage, and threatening to jail entire families to extort from those who have fled the country.

One of the main sources of income for the totalitarian regime is a “tax” it forces that way onto its citizens abroad, payable regularly at foreign representations of Eritrea.

At the EU summit in Salzburg, Egypt has now been promised more support by the EU. Ex-General and now President al-Sisi’s military-backed dictatorship in Egypt –which brutally opposes the press, dissenters and LGBT and deteriorates further – was praised in Salzburg as a “particularly efficient” government that has proved itself capable of keeping back migrants.

The NGO Reporters Without Borders called Egypt under al-Sisi “one of the world’s largest jails for journalists”. The human rights organization Amnesty International reports that Egypt faces a “human rights crisis” with hundreds of people tortured in military prisons, forcefully disappeared without a trace and extrajudicially executed, or collectively sentenced to death in mass convictions.

Critical voices are systematically silenced with threats, travel restrictions and confiscations. This is the “particularly efficient” governance, that Europe today seems to value in its partners.

The list of examples could go on and on. Morocco’s authoritarian regime is flattered and served at every opportunity, even though the country has not only illegally occupied Western Sahara for decades but also ranks among the lowest ranks worldwide in terms of press freedom and human rights.

In Algeria, Angela Merkel recently visited the man who ruled the country for decades with an iron fist and despite extreme old age and illness apparently cannot step down from power. The main topic: the fight against refugees.

In Libya, marauding pirates and murderous rebel leaders are quickly relabelled into the legitimate-sounding “Libyan Coast Guard”.

The weak “unity government” (at times up to three rival governments in war-wracked Libya) is treated as a reliable partner in the fight against refugees – despite the shocking fact that German diplomats in leaked internal papers compare the unbelievably horrific and, in thousands of cases, deadly camps in the country with the concentration camps of the Nazis.

Europe’s bulwark against refugees consists not only of barbed wire fences and concrete walls. Above all, it is a perfidious network of willing dictators, who do the dirty work for Europe, far away from the legal safeguards of the European states and the EU.

Amongst these new “partners” of Europe, even the increasingly autocratic Turkish President Erdoğan resembles a “democrat”. Despite all that, Europe, in its sheer unlimited arrogance, seems unable to refrain from denouncing China’s practices as a threat to democracy and the rule of law in Africa.

Yes, one can and must see China’s involvement in Africa in a very critical light. In a post-colonial world, however, it should be up to the people of Africa and China to evaluate and criticise (if they so choose) this commitment.

It is up to us, on the other hand, as Europeans, to critically assess Europe’s engagement on our southern neighbour continent. This raises the question of what is worse: China’s ignorance of human rights abuses or Europe’s seemingly targeted cooperation with African regimes, which appears to have the motto: the crueller, the more effective it is in the fight against refugees.

China is not the main source of support for brutal regimes in Africa, but Europe in its obsessive mania to keep refugees as far away as possible.

EURACTIV’s editorial content is independent from the views of our sponsors.

Masking Truth  July 14th 2020

Masking Truth  July 14th 2020

The official UK government guidance states that evidence around wearing a face covering suggests it “does not protect you” from coronavirus.

The greta delusion, in denial about population issue.

But the guidance adds: “If you are infected but have not yet developed symptoms, it may provide some protection for others you come into close contact with.”

The evidence of coverings preventing the spread of infection from one person to another is “marginal but positive”, according to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies that is advising the government.

Mask of Fear, to be worn in all U.K shops frpm July 24th Image Appledene Photographics/RJC

Britain’s hypersensitivity to the Covid situation has all to do with its impact on ethnic communities at ho,e and in the old Empire where overpopulation is beyond being called a crisis.  Britain’s elite played a big role infesting the African continent with the Christian Religion – a perversion of Jesus’s teachings, and by then a political dogma and con trick doing more to oppress than slavery ever did.  

The average African woman has 15 children.  The story below goes beyond that.  Inevitably this African woman thanks God for the 44 of her 50 children that survived.  There can be no shock or surprise that crowded African towns and cities are a haven for all sorts of diseases, including Covid 19. The implications for the world beyond disease ridden religious mad Africa and Indian sub continent are horrific in the age of global economics.  But the truth must be masked so as not to offend the so called minorities in what is also the sacred age of BLM

Her name is Mariam Nabatanzi, and life hasn’t been easy for her. When she was only 13 years old, her parents sold her to a man who was 27 years older. They called it marriage, but Mariam didn’t even know what was going on until she was left at the man’s house. A year later she had her first babies, twins, the next year, triplets and another year there were quadruplets.

Being just a teenage girl, Mariam found marriage to be a hard journey. “My husband had many children from his past relationships and I had to take care of them because their mothers were scattered all over. He was also violent and would beat me at any opportunity he got, even when I suggested an idea that he didn’t like.” She said.

There was a point when Mariam had already had 23 children, and this is when she decided that she had had enough and asked doctors if some procedure could be done so she wouldn’t have any more children. But after an extensive examination, doctors said that she had a high ovary count and that any procedure would put her health and even her life in danger. Mariam gave birth to a total of 44 babies, 6 twins, 4 sets of triplets, 3 sets of quadruplets, and only 2 children were born without a “copy.” There were also another 6 that passed away. Mariam said that she has no regrets and that having kids is a blessing from God.

All her children are getting an education. One of her firstborn twins became a nurse and the other became a qualified builder. “I am hopeful that my children will go to school because they all have big ambitions of being doctors, teachers, and lawyers. I want them to achieve these dreams, something I was not able to do.”

To cover her expenses, Mariam has had to learn many different skills. She collects local herbs to sell, bakes cakes, lays bricks, braids hair, organizes and decorates events, and even styles hair for brides. “I know these children are a gift from God that I have to treasure, so I try my best to fend for them.”

Former BBC journalist Kasim Kayira heard about Mariam and visited her outstanding family. It is thanks to him that we now know about her as well. Mariam has a message for all parents in her culture: “Stop selling your daughters to men for early marriages. They suffer too much, and the loss of parental love is something that they can never fully recover from.”

Maraiam’s little family.

“I’ll keep on fighting to make sure my children always have food to eat. I will never abandon them, even if we suffer to survive daily,” this amazing mother said. In her interview to Kassim, Mariam gave some advice to all men “Do not forget your responsibility, because marriage is a joint responsibility to raise your children.”

Water Falls July 11th 2020

Water supply in parts of England at ‘serious risk’ of running out within 20 years, MPs warn

“More immediately, some areas are facing shortages during the Covid-19 pandemic”

The warning came from MPs on the Commons Public Accounts Committee ( PA )

窗体底端

MPs have warned parts of England could run out of water within the next 20 years and called for the Government to “step up and make up for lost time”.

In a damning report, the Commons Public Accounts Committee said the Government had shown a “lack of leadership in getting to grips with these issues”.

The report said there has been “no progress” in reducing leakage over the past two decades, “very little” has been achieved in reducing demand and a “far too ponderous” approach has been taken to improving water infrastructure.

Committee chairwoman Meg Hillier said: “It is very hard to imagine, in this country, turning the tap and not having enough clean, drinkable water come out – but that is exactly what we now face.

“Continued inaction by the water industry means we continue to lose one fifth of our daily supply to leaks.

“Empty words on climate commitments and unfunded public information campaigns will get us where we’ve got the last 20 years – nowhere.”

The damning report came from the Commons Public Accounts Committee(PA)

The committee was scathing in its assessment of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), saying the Government and regulators have “taken their eye off the ball”.

The report said: “There is a serious risk that some parts of the country will run out of water within the next 20 years.

“More immediately, some areas are facing shortages during the Covid-19 pandemic.”

The department must “step up, make up for lost time and ensure all parties act with the urgency required”, the MPs said.

In a response to the report, Defra told the BBC: “We are already taking a tougher approach to poor performance and wastage within the water industry, while also finding ways to increase supply.”

The report drew upon work by the National Audit Office which warned parts of the south and south east of England will run out of water within the next 20 years unless concerted action is taken.

The MPs said that due to rising demand and falling supply of water, the Environment Agency now estimates England will need an extra 3.6 billion litres per day by 2050 to avoid shortages.

But a fifth of the water currently used – more than three billion litres – is lost to leakage every day.

The figure, which the committee said it “wholly unacceptable”, has fallen from more than 4.5 billion in the early 1990s until the turn of the century, but MPs said there has now been “over a decade of complacency and inaction”.

The report was scathing in its assessment of Defra (Nick Ansell/PA Wire)

Defra has “belatedly” set targets to reduce leakage by a third by 2030 and half by 2050, they said.

The committee called for annual league tables to be published by the end of the year showing water companies’ records in tackling leakage and reducing consumption.

The MPs also said the Government must be clear with water companies on how they should balance investment on improving infrastructure with keeping customers’ bills affordable.

A spokesman for trade body Water UK said: “We welcome the committee’s focus on an array of critical issues for our water supplies, and across many areas the industry is making significant progress, with leakage down 7 per cent this year to the lowest level since records began.

“Tackling leakage is one of the industry’s top priorities and we’re committed to halving it by 2050.

“We’ve also been calling for regulations to save water in homes by introducing labels on washing machines and dishwashers to show how much water they use, and we’re now working with the campaign group Waterwise on a new national consumer campaign to promote water efficiency.”

More about: | Commons Public Accounts Committee | DEFRA | National Audit Office

Coronavirus shows the enormous scale of the climate crisis Posted April 23rd 2020

The coronavirus pandemic is likely to cause the biggest-ever annual drop in carbon emissions, but how we recover will determine the future of the climate crisis

The world is in the grip of two crises. The first, the coronavirus pandemic, was completely unknown to us just four months ago but has already warped our lives beyond all recognition. Next to the perilous urgency of coronavirus, the second great crisis, the climate crisis, may currently feel more distant than at any other point in the last decade. The devastating Australian bushfires were still burning when coronavirus started spreading in central China but already those events seemed consigned to a different era.

There are moments when these simultaneous crises bring each other into sharp relief. In Delhi, Bangkok and São Paulo residents expressed disbelief at the unusually clean air in cities usually choked with pollution. New research from Italy, Spain, France and Germany also suggests that air pollution may be a contributor to Covid-19 deaths. As leading public health experts have long warned, the climate crisis is also a public health crisis.

While the coronavirus pandemic is giving us a glimpse of what life would look like with less air pollution, it’s also shedding more light on the scale of the climate crisis we all face. And though there are precious few certainties in the world right now, one thing is becoming clear: how we respond to the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis will have a huge impact on our ability to tackle the other great crisis of our lifetimes.

The coronavirus pandemic has grounded almost all flights, shut down offices and forced cars from the road. This will likely put a serious dent into the amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2020. One estimate from Carbon Brief puts the potential drop of CO2 emissions at 5.5 per cent compared with 2019. In the US, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the country’s emissions are set to drop by 7.5 per cent. Rob Jackson, chair of the Global Carbon Project told Reuters that he wouldn’t be surprised to see a drop of five per cent or more globally in 2020.

Read next

Whatever the precise figure, it’s likely that the coronavirus pandemic will trigger the largest ever yearly drop in CO2 emissions. The dips caused by the Second War War, the financial crisis or the Spanish Flu don’t even come close. But this reduction in emissions is still way off what we’d need to prevent 1.5 degrees Celsius of global heating. To hit this, as Carbon Brief notes, global emissions would need to fall by 7.6 per cent every year this decade.

Even if coronavirus does cause a dip of this level for a single year, we know from past crises that emissions tend to rebound once the crisis is over. As Glen Peters at the Center for International Climate and Environment Research in Oslo notes, every single emissions dip since the 1960s – the two oil crises, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Asian financial crisis in the mid 1990s and the 2008 financial crash – was followed by a period of growing emissions. In the wake of the 2008 financial crash, a raft of stimulus packages prompted a 5.1 per cent rebound in global emissions in 2010, far above the long-term average. In the US, the EIA estimates that emissions will increase by 3.6 per cent in 2021.

But even in the short term, the current dips in emissions aren’t necessarily a source of optimism. Yes, they have shown that dramatic changes in our behaviour can cause a significant dip in emissions, but at what cost? In America, protestors (and the president) are putting public health at risk to rile against the lockdown. Across Europe and beyond, countries are itching to ease their own restrictions on movement. No one is credibly suggesting that lockdown-like conditions are a possible way out of the climate crisis.

And while our behaviour has changed hugely during the coronavirus crisis, perhaps more pertinent is what has stayed the same. “We’re still generating electricity in the same way, we’re still heating our homes in the same way and we’re still driving cars that take the same petrol and diesel that they always have done,” says Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds and a member of the UK Committee on Climate Change. “[The coronavirus crisis] tells us we need to do far more than just change our behaviour.”

The current crisis may leave us with some long-term shifts in behaviour that benefit the environment. The ease with which many of us have adapted to lifestyles of home working and Zoom calls makes a world with more flexible working and fewer business flights not so hard to imagine. But this really amounts to fiddling around the edges of the climate crisis.

Read next

“To get the huge reductions in emissions that we want we need far more systematic things going on,” says Forster. “When you offer jobs to people and you invest in industries it needs to be those industries of tomorrow.” In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the rush to get the economy functioning again led to a spike in emissions from fossil fuel firms and the cement industry.

The recovery from coronavirus will require a huge drive to get people into secure, long-term employment. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, a three-month-long lockdown could see an unemployment rise to ten per cent in the UK. In one week in mid-April, 5.24 million Americans filed for unemployment, bringing the total claims since March 14 to 22.2 million.

If the world is going to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic in a state fit to fight the climate crisis, it must steer its recovery towards sustainable industries – those working in home insulation, renewable energy and electric vehicles. The answers to the climate crisis are the same as those before the pandemic swept the world, but we have a new opportunity to refocus our energies towards a shared goal; kick-starting the economy and pushing us towards net zero by 2050.

We might also take some encouragement from the way that ordinary people have responded to the pandemic, says Andrew Challinor, a professor of climate impacts at the University of Leeds. “This really demonstrates that we really have a capacity in this society to [come together],” he says. “How can we use that goodwill alongside the climate agenda? How do we bring those two things together?”

Coronavirus has also taught us a thing or two about clear messaging. Despite some early missteps, there are few that haven’t been reached by the government’s core message: stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives. The messaging is so simple that it has already inspired a new generation of curtain-twitching vigilantes.

Read next

Such laser-focussed messaging could help prompt people to take the climate crisis more seriously and point them towards behavioural changes they can make to lessen their own impact.“Look how clear our lines of communication can be when there’s a sharp sense of urgency,” says Challinor.

And it is this urgency that will become crucial when the world begins its recovery from the current pandemic. As we have seen from the varying degrees that countries have suffered with their own Covid-19 outbreaks, countries hit previously with outbreaks of Sars and Mers were among the quickest to get their own outbreaks under control. The world has already seen enough examples of the devastating impact of climate change to learn this lesson many times over. The next year or two will prove whether we were truly paying attention.

Matt Reynolds is WIRED’s science editor. He tweets from @mattsreynolds1

Coronavirus coverage from WIRED

The world is in the grip of two crises. The first, the coronavirus pandemic, was completely unknown to us just four months ago but has already warped our lives beyond all recognition. Next to the perilous urgency of coronavirus, the second great crisis, the climate crisis, may currently feel more distant than at any other point in the last decade. The devastating Australian bushfires were still burning when coronavirus started spreading in central China but already those events seemed consigned to a different era.

There are moments when these simultaneous crises bring each other into sharp relief. In Delhi, Bangkok and São Paulo residents expressed disbelief at the unusually clean air in cities usually choked with pollution. New research from Italy, Spain, France and Germany also suggests that air pollution may be a contributor to Covid-19 deaths. As leading public health experts have long warned, the climate crisis is also a public health crisis.

While the coronavirus pandemic is giving us a glimpse of what life would look like with less air pollution, it’s also shedding more light on the scale of the climate crisis we all face. And though there are precious few certainties in the world right now, one thing is becoming clear: how we respond to the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis will have a huge impact on our ability to tackle the other great crisis of our lifetimes.

The coronavirus pandemic has grounded almost all flights, shut down offices and forced cars from the road. This will likely put a serious dent into the amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2020. One estimate from Carbon Brief puts the potential drop of CO2 emissions at 5.5 per cent compared with 2019. In the US, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the country’s emissions are set to drop by 7.5 per cent. Rob Jackson, chair of the Global Carbon Project told Reuters that he wouldn’t be surprised to see a drop of five per cent or more globally in 2020.

Read next

Whatever the precise figure, it’s likely that the coronavirus pandemic will trigger the largest ever yearly drop in CO2 emissions. The dips caused by the Second War War, the financial crisis or the Spanish Flu don’t even come close. But this reduction in emissions is still way off what we’d need to prevent 1.5 degrees Celsius of global heating. To hit this, as Carbon Brief notes, global emissions would need to fall by 7.6 per cent every year this decade.

Even if coronavirus does cause a dip of this level for a single year, we know from past crises that emissions tend to rebound once the crisis is over. As Glen Peters at the Center for International Climate and Environment Research in Oslo notes, every single emissions dip since the 1960s – the two oil crises, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Asian financial crisis in the mid 1990s and the 2008 financial crash – was followed by a period of growing emissions. In the wake of the 2008 financial crash, a raft of stimulus packages prompted a 5.1 per cent rebound in global emissions in 2010, far above the long-term average. In the US, the EIA estimates that emissions will increase by 3.6 per cent in 2021.

But even in the short term, the current dips in emissions aren’t necessarily a source of optimism. Yes, they have shown that dramatic changes in our behaviour can cause a significant dip in emissions, but at what cost? In America, protestors (and the president) are putting public health at risk to rile against the lockdown. Across Europe and beyond, countries are itching to ease their own restrictions on movement. No one is credibly suggesting that lockdown-like conditions are a possible way out of the climate crisis.

And while our behaviour has changed hugely during the coronavirus crisis, perhaps more pertinent is what has stayed the same. “We’re still generating electricity in the same way, we’re still heating our homes in the same way and we’re still driving cars that take the same petrol and diesel that they always have done,” says Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds and a member of the UK Committee on Climate Change. “[The coronavirus crisis] tells us we need to do far more than just change our behaviour.”

The current crisis may leave us with some long-term shifts in behaviour that benefit the environment. The ease with which many of us have adapted to lifestyles of home working and Zoom calls makes a world with more flexible working and fewer business flights not so hard to imagine. But this really amounts to fiddling around the edges of the climate crisis.

Read next

“To get the huge reductions in emissions that we want we need far more systematic things going on,” says Forster. “When you offer jobs to people and you invest in industries it needs to be those industries of tomorrow.” In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the rush to get the economy functioning again led to a spike in emissions from fossil fuel firms and the cement industry.

The recovery from coronavirus will require a huge drive to get people into secure, long-term employment. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, a three-month-long lockdown could see an unemployment rise to ten per cent in the UK. In one week in mid-April, 5.24 million Americans filed for unemployment, bringing the total claims since March 14 to 22.2 million.

If the world is going to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic in a state fit to fight the climate crisis, it must steer its recovery towards sustainable industries – those working in home insulation, renewable energy and electric vehicles. The answers to the climate crisis are the same as those before the pandemic swept the world, but we have a new opportunity to refocus our energies towards a shared goal; kick-starting the economy and pushing us towards net zero by 2050.

We might also take some encouragement from the way that ordinary people have responded to the pandemic, says Andrew Challinor, a professor of climate impacts at the University of Leeds. “This really demonstrates that we really have a capacity in this society to [come together],” he says. “How can we use that goodwill alongside the climate agenda? How do we bring those two things together?”

Coronavirus has also taught us a thing or two about clear messaging. Despite some early missteps, there are few that haven’t been reached by the government’s core message: stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives. The messaging is so simple that it has already inspired a new generation of curtain-twitching vigilantes.

Read next

Such laser-focussed messaging could help prompt people to take the climate crisis more seriously and point them towards behavioural changes they can make to lessen their own impact.“Look how clear our lines of communication can be when there’s a sharp sense of urgency,” says Challinor.

And it is this urgency that will become crucial when the world begins its recovery from the current pandemic. As we have seen from the varying degrees that countries have suffered with their own Covid-19 outbreaks, countries hit previously with outbreaks of Sars and Mers were among the quickest to get their own outbreaks under control. The world has already seen enough examples of the devastating impact of climate change to learn this lesson many times over. The next year or two will prove whether we were truly paying attention.

Matt Reynolds is WIRED’s science editor. He tweets from @mattsreynolds1

Quiet Earth April 5th 2020

There’s less rumbling on the surface

Seismic stations are usually found well outside metropolitan areas, away from vibrations that could obscure subtle tremors within Earth’s interior, but the Brussels station was established more than a century ago, before a city grew around it.

Today, it provides a fascinating glimpse of the ebb and flow of a bustling city; Lecocq has found that when it snows, anthropogenic seismic activity decreases, and on the day of a road race, it spikes. Lecocq checked seismic data the day before Belgium began a nationwide lockdown, and then the following morning.


Lecocq shared his approach online, and seismologists in the United States, France, New Zealand, and elsewhere are now seeing the effects of their country’s own social-distancing measures on seismic activity.

For seismologists who study seismic signals from Earth’s interior—rather than other sources, including people, animals, even storms—quarantines seem to have made it easier to listen.

As cities and, in some cases, entire nations weather the pandemic under lockdown, Earth-observing satellites have detected a significant decrease in the concentration of a common air pollutant, nitrogen dioxide, which enters the atmosphere through emissions from cars, trucks, buses, and power plants.

The drop, observed in China and Europe, coincided with stringent social-distancing measures on the ground. Air pollution can seriously damage human health, and the World Health Organisation estimates that conditions stemming from exposure to ambient pollution—including stroke, heart disease, and respiratory illnesses—kill about 4.2 million people a year.

Billionaires gather at Davos – the rich gloat as planet burns. The Midas Touch

January 26th 2020


Mass movements for radical change are the way to save the planet - not relying on the rich and politicians

Mass movements for radical change are the way to save the planet – not relying on the rich and politicians (Pic: Andrew McGowan)


Move over little Greta, this is a woman who suffers from body issues. She hates men seeing her as a sex sbject, twerking her bottom. Word has at it that tall Taylor of tall tales will soon be singing about the need to reduce global warming. I suggest she puts some clothes on firts to cool the men down.

Meanwhile the same yesterdasys’s Times cover informs us that the British police are too incompetent to deal with fraud crimes. No matter, so long as they are keeping women and their spaces safe while we men are watched over by CCTV getting all the street crimes we deserve and being prevented from ravishing beauties on the streets who live with the very real danger of rape.

“Without treating this as a real crisis we cannot solve it,” was the rallying cry from school climate strike leader Greta Thunberg to world leaders this week.

Unfortunately for her—and for us—they won’t listen.

Speaking at the Davos conference, hosted by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Thunberg joined climate activists Autumn Peltier, Salvador Gomez-Colon and Natasha Wang Mwansa.

Billionaires and politicians gathered at the ski resort in Switzerland to discuss its key theme—“stakeholders for a cohesive and sustainable world”.

Also due to speak on the climate crisis was Bank of England governor Mark Carney and former US vice president Al Gore.

Ahead of Davos, Thunberg and other strike leaders demanded that governments and companies halt investment, extraction and subsidies for fossil fuels.

But for the fossil fuel magnates and banking fat cats crammed into the conference halls in Davos, nothing of the sort is planned.

The tiny minority who fill the world’s boardrooms and sign off on new fossil fuels explorations plan to expand operations, not cut back.

Super-rich

Davos doesn’t challenge rule by the handful of super-rich—it entrenches it.

It allows the scum at the top of society to hobnob with each other, all while pretending to care about the fact that the planet is on fire.

It’s not just that they represent a rotten system. Davos delegates lack the power or the will to challenge the system as a whole.

The answer isn’t more conferences of the rich and powerful to shore up their capitalist system—it’s to build a force powerful enough to take them on.

The fight for our lives—and our world—is on.

It will mean building a society that can take on the causes of extreme weather, rising sea levels, soaring temperatures, floods and species extinction.

Everyone who cares about the future of the planet should throw themselves into building a force powerful enough to take on the power and resources of the Trumps or Carneys of this world.

The bosses at Davos pay lip service to the climate emergency—but they don’t have the same interests as us.

Their priority is clinging on to their wealth and power, whatever the environmental cost. Our battle is to fight for a sustainable world built on the interests of the planet and ordinary people.


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Ugly Truth That Must Not Be Spoken In Polite Company Posted January 16th 2020

The fall out shelters are being dug deeper and made more luxurious for those who can afford them. Meanwhile other rich folk dream of a new life on Mars, while the poor ignorant masses trust in God, who paradoxically they believe created this difficult world and life.

The BBC – Big Brother Calling- has just published the following advertising for a new TV Documentary series from legendary naturalist and their former boss David Attenborough. it is pretty patronising stuff. Education has become a weapon for advancement rather than enlightenment, with religion getting a new lease of life- but still what Marx called the opium of the masses. And so to Attenborough:

‘When it comes to climate change, “we’re refusing to take steps that we know have to be taken”. That’s the damning verdict of naturalist Sir David Attenborough, who declares “the moment of crisis has come”, in a BBC News interview to launch a year of special coverage on the subject of climate change. The Our Planet Matters project – across digital, TV and radio – includes a new monthly Climate Check podcast from BBC Weather, and coverage of debates and events around the globe.

As part of it, Sir David plans a new hour-long documentary – Extinction: The Facts – to examine the fragile state of the natural world. On Radio 4’s PM programme, Rianna Croxford will look at how we can respond to the climate crisis at home by examining the environmental impact of individual household items. And our coverage goes back to basics, with global science correspondent Rebecca Morelle explaining what we mean when we talk about climate change. We have also produced seven charts to help you visualise the problem and understand how aspects such as the places we live and the food we eat affect the situation. ‘

My thoughts,’ The Fire Next Time’ : Many years ago, possibly the late 1980s, I watched Attenborough’s Christmas broadcast of the Reith lectures. To coin a phrase from my hippy youth, he was ‘mind blowing’.

He talked about the fate of dinosaurs and the bleak future facing mankind, naming overpopulation as the big issue that would lead to our extinction if we did not do something about it.

Today I heard Putin and his new PM on television talking about the need to create more economic growth in Russia. China has been belching out pollutants and expanding its population for years while the U.S and Germany are unrepentant about expanding use of fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, self important elitist Britain, seizing another oppotunity to keep its cheap labour masses in check, lectures this swelling immigrant fed underclass on their need to reduce their carbon footprint- but leave the likes of Prince and Princess Harry alone along with all the rest of the European jet set. As a former maths teacher this does not seem to add up.

Worse still, and the nub of the problem is the massive population upsurge in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. The majority if not all of the people here, with the exception of their political class -who are also jet setters – live in a religious fantasy world, deriving their world view from a religious tradition beginning with Abraham who claimed to hear God speak from behind a burning bush. For political and thus power mad reasons, that religious seed split into the warring groups of today.

Now we have so many burning bushes from Brazil to Australia, but no fantasy of God will save us in this world. Wars used to keep the population down, maybe World War III is coming and will do the trick. Religion is led and followed by so many hypocrits who don’t even read the texts, so they won’t know that God warned of the ‘fire next time.’ Meanwhile, Attenborough has moderated his language.

It would be racist and a religious hate crime to call for birth control in the old Third World. Attenborough is just part of the PC club now. We must have more growth for more population. Cutting the carbon will solve the problem. No mention that plant life needs carbon and nature needs balance. No, the more the merrier is the message. Build the buildings higher and the fall out shelters deeper. That will solve the future, and pray thanks to little Greta, the new feminist know it all Messiah and her disciples. Like the police, messiahs start to look like children as we get older. Robert Cook

Climate Change Source Guardian Posted December 22nd 2019

Brits may be obsessed with the weather, but having endured more than two months of persistent heavy rain, powerful waves and severe storms, this is no longer the topic of small talk. January in the south of England was the wettest since record-keeping began more than 100 years ago and across the country the drastic conditions have devastated homes, thrown lives into confusion and fuelled a political bunfight.

Is the planet overpopulated? Depends how you look at it ? Posted January 10th 2020

In the long term nature won’t tolerate imbalance nor will humans stay sane with chronic overcrowding, so there is no comfortable path to incessant human population expansion. Societies will do all sorts of things to adapt, but conflict is inevitable along with other problems.

Could you fit all of China’s population on the Isle of Wight? That used to be the fun question to put overpopulation in perspective.
China’s population was then so large-, back in the 1960s, that a one child per family was compulsory. Now for the sake of economic growth, cultural homogeneity and defence, the restriction is lifted. This is the strategy of all nations today, especially the so called BRICs states- Brazil, Russia, India and China.
It is noteworthy that large areas of the earth’s surface are not easily, if at all, habitable. Migration into space and down to the sea bed are options under investigation.
Robert Cook

Isle of wight has has an area of around 572 km²

Let’s say there are 7 billion people on the planet

that would mean 7’000’000’000 / 572 about 12.2 million people per square kilometer.

So if each person was just standing and doing nothing much, if they took up just 1 meter square. you’d fit a million of them per square kilometre.

So you’d have to build a structure with at least 13 floors all across the isle of wight just so everyone can stand in their own 1 meter square.

Of course people could take up more or less space and that would change how many you could fit on). If you could fit 13 people in 1 square meter then yeah you would fit the world’s population on the isle of wight!! Bizboz

Why has the weather been so wet? December 22nd 2019

Rain and wind in U.K has been incessant RJC

Dame Julia Slingo, the Met Office’s chief scientist said on Sunday that the UK had seen the “most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years”.

The report reveals that while downpours and storms have not been out of the ordinary, their frequency has been.

“Each one of these individual events has not been particular outstanding, they’ve been broadly along the lines of what we would expect for a typical winter storm in the UK,” said Simon Parry from the CEH and co-author of the report. “What’s been notable about it, and different from what we’ve seen in the past, is the persistence.”

That, according to Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office and another author of the report, is down to a series of deep low pressure systems linked to the jet stream – wind that blows from west to east across the Atlantic. “When the jet stream is strong then the storms are strong,” said Scaife.

“It’s normally stronger in winter than it is in summer but this year it has been exceptionally strong and that is absolutely bound to the storminess because the jet stream steers the storms but it also feeds off them.”

Why the abnormally strong jet stream?

The report highlights two key factors the authors believe have contributed to the effect.

The first is a persistent high pressure system lurking over a patch of the Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of North America. This high pressure system is sending a chill across the US.

“The air tends to rotate in a clockwise fashion around the high pressure system,” said Scaife. “That is going to drag the air from up near the Arctic down over North America.”

As a result, Canada and North America have been held in an icy grip for weeks. And further east, as the cold air from North America meets the warm air from the tropics, a large temperature gradient – the rate at which temperature changes with distance – is created.

“The storms feed off that temperature gradient – the stronger that gradient the more conducive it is to growing storms,” said Scaife. “As the storms grow they also flux momentum into the jet stream,” he added, “and of course sitting downstream at the end of that path is us.”

Another effect in the report is the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). This is where a band of fast-moving winds that blow around the equator change direction.

“You see roughly every 14 months the winds reverse and instead of blowing form the east towards the west they flip and the blow from west to east,” said Scaife.

The last time this happened was in early 2013. And while the equator is hundreds of miles away, the effects of QBO can be felt closer to home.

“When the QBO is blowing from the west then this also strengthens the jet stream over the Atlantic and increases the amount of storminess,” said Scaife. And with these winds in a strong westerly phase this winter, they too may have contributed to the relentlessly violent weather.

Is this pattern likely to be repeated in future winters?

It is hard to say at this stage. “Probably next year the QBO will have flipped but there are other factors that drive the jet stream so its not possible at this range to say whether next winter will be the same,” says Scaife.

Is climate change ultimately the cause?

It is not possible to link the current floods definitively to climate change. “In terms of the number of storms there is scant evidence that has been increasing due to climate change so far,” said Scaife. “[But] we do expect that winter rainfall is likely to increase in the future.” This is in part down to a warming planet. “As the air warms it can hold more water.”

As the climate crisis escalates…

… the Guardian will not stay quiet. This is our pledge: we will continue to give global heating, wildlife extinction and pollution the urgent attention and prominence they demand. The Guardian recognises the climate emergency as the defining issue of our times.

We chose a different approach: to keep Guardian journalism open for all. We don’t have a paywall because we believe everyone deserves access to factual information, regardless of where they live or what they can afford to pay.

Our editorial independence means we are free to investigate and challenge inaction by those in power. We will inform our readers about threats to the environment based on scientific facts, not driven by commercial or political interests. And we have made several important changes to our style guide to ensure the language we use accurately reflects the environmental catastrophe.

The Guardian believes that the problems we face on the climate crisis are systemic and that fundamental societal change is needed. We will keep reporting on the efforts of individuals and communities around the world who are fearlessly taking a stand for future generations and the preservation of human life on earth. We want their stories to inspire hope. We will also report back on our own progress as an organisation, as we take important steps to address our impact on the environment.

Earth Past Climate Change Tipping Point November 28th 2019

Blinding Rain on M40 November 26th 2019 RJC

The world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, according to a stark warning from scientists. This risk is “an existential threat to civilisation”, they say, meaning “we are in a state of planetary emergency”.

Tipping points are reached when particular impacts of global heating become unstoppable, such as the runaway loss of ice sheets or forests. In the past, extreme heating of 5C was thought necessary to pass tipping points, but the latest evidence suggests this could happen between 1C and 2C.

The planet has already heated by 1C and the temperature is certain to rise further, due to past emissions and because greenhouse gas levels are still rising. The scientists further warn that one tipping point, such as the release of methane from thawing permafrost, may fuel others, leading to a cascade.

The researchers, writing in a commentary article in the journal Nature, acknowledge that the complex science of tipping points means great uncertainty remains. But they say the potential damage from the tipping points is so big and the time to act so short, that “to err on the side of danger is not a responsible option”. They call for urgent international action.

“A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping could still be under our control to some extent,” they write. “The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril. International action – not just words – must reflect this.” Source Guardian

American Cities That Will Soon Be Under Water Posted November 10th 2019

By Michael B. Sauter and Thomas C. Frohlich October 30, 2019 12:00 pm EDT Print EmailTweet

A recent report from Climate Central, an independent organization of scientists and journalists researching and reporting climate change, said rising sea levels caused by global warming could lift chronic flooding higher than land now home to 300 million people. By 2100, land where 200 million people now live could be permanently below the high-tide line. Currently, 110 million live below the high-tide level. The report says 760,000 Americans currently live below the high-tide line, and by the most conservative estimate, that number will rise to 1.6 million by 2100.

With the ice in Greenland and Antarctica melting at record rates, scientists currently estimate sea levels could rise 2-7 feet by the end of the century, with some estimates even higher. Antarctica has about 90% of all ice in the world, enough to raise global sea levels by 200 feet, in theory. This kind of catastrophic sea level rise is just one of many potential disaster scenarios caused by climate change.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed data modeled by environmental watchdog group the Union of Concerned Scientists. The UCS in June 2018 released a report identifying U.S. coastal communities expected to face chronic and disruptive flooding before the end of the century.

We reviewed the coastal communities in which at least 10% of habitable land is expected to experience chronic flooding by 2060. Places are ranked by the number of residents that live in parts of the community expected to be regularly flooded by 2060.

Other factors, such as the possibility that global climate change could increase the prevalence and intensity of severe weather events such as hurricanes, could make actual outcomes in these cities even more dire. There are already places in the United States where weather appears to be getting worse because of climate change.

Across U.S. coastal cities, more than 300,000 homes worth a combined $117.5 billion are likely to be at risk of chronic tidal flooding within 30 years, according to UCS analysis and projections. By the end of the century, that total could rise to 2.4 million homes and more than $1 trillion in property damage — and those estimates are based only on existing homes. The regular inundation these cities face in the near future could make the worst floods in American history seem tame by comparison.

Click here to see the American cities that will soon be under water
Click here to read our methodology

Numbers Posted November 5th 2019

During my time as a maths teacher I used to say that children would find the subject more interesting if they were told what it is good for. It is a subject that many people are still afraid of. In this age of the pocket calculator, mobile phone apps and computers people feel even less need to understand.

In this country and many others, education is not about freedom of thought, it is about putting people in their place and conditioning them to accept it.

In this way the young are trained not to step out of line or they will face the consequences. These consequences are decided by dubious hypocritical politicians and their bullying spying police. For good measure Britain and the elite are doing their best to revive religion, with all the fear, division and distraction that goes with it.

Britain;s elite, using working class foot soldiers, made an indelible mark on history, and do not want to let go. So it is no wonder the world is in a mess. Queen Victoria referred to India as the ‘jewel in her crown.’ Well below is an extract from a recent BBC report on environmental problems in Delhi:

India’s top court has accused state governments of “passing the buck” on air pollution and failing to take action to tackle Delhi’s toxic smog.

The Supreme Court said authorities were only interested in “gimmicks”, rather than concrete measures to combat pollution levels.

Levels of dangerous particles in the air – known as PM2.5 – are at well over 10 times safe limits in the capital.

City authorities have responded by launching a car rationing system.

“Delhi is choking every year and we are unable to do anything,” said Supreme Court Justice Arun Mishra. “The state machinery is not acting… They are passing the buck to each other… Everybody is interested in gimmicks and elections.”

From 4 to 15 November, cars with odd or even number plates will only be allowed on the roads on alternate days, officials said. Such a system has been used before but it is not clear if it helps lower pollution levels.

Editorial Comment Not so long ago Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICS) were applauded as rising stars for better living standards across the world. Africa was added to this. To talk of limiting population was and still is seen as racist by the comfortable virtue signallers.

Years ago there was the saying that all the world’s Chinese could be fitted on the tiny Isle of Wight. But people want more than that, which is why we have so many people risking and losing their lives as economic migrants/asylum seekersd. Ruling elites across the world, including in Britain, want to go on taking most of the profits from new technology.

The only numbers they are interested in is money and their pleasure. As we see with the rather obvious George Soros, they are prepared to do anything to achieve this. But for all of the propoganda, the numbers are adding up to serious social unrest. The elite response is more lies, distractions like Brexit, diversity and feminism, propoganda, more police officers and jail space. Robert Cook

Does Population Growth Impact Climate Change?

Does the rate at which people are reproducing need to be controlled to save the environment? Written July 29 2009- Posted September 29th 2019

  • July 29, 2009
Does Population Growth Impact Climate Change?
Credit: Jake Brewer, courtesy Flickr

Dear EarthTalk: To what extent does human population growth impact global warming, and what can be done about it?
— Larry LeDoux, Honolulu, HI

No doubt human population growth is a major contributor to global warming, given that humans use fossil fuels to power their increasingly mechanized lifestyles. More people means more demand for oil, gas, coal and other fuels mined or drilled from below the Earth’s surface that, when burned, spew enough carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere to trap warm air inside like a greenhouse.

Humans on the Ground. Religion promotes population growth in pooer countries, feminism discourages it in the rich countries. The rich countries take the blame for climate change. Robert Cook

According to the United Nations Population Fund, human population grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion people during the course of the 20th century. (Think about it: It took all of time for population to reach 1.6 billion; then it shot to 6.1 billion over just 100 years.) During that time emissions of CO2, the leading greenhouse gas, grew 12-fold. And with worldwide population expected to surpass nine billion over the next 50 years, environmentalists and others are worried about the ability of the planet to withstand the added load of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere and wreaking havoc on ecosystems down below.

Developed countries consume the lion’s share of fossil fuels. The United States, for example, contains just five percent of world population, yet contributes a quarter of total CO2 output. But while population growth is stagnant or dropping in most developed countries (except for the U.S., due to immigration), it is rising rapidly in quickly industrializing developing nations. According to the United Nations Population Fund, fast-growing developing countries (like China and India) will contribute more than half of global CO2 emissions by 2050, leading some to wonder if all of the efforts being made to curb U.S. emissions will be erased by other countries’ adoption of our long held over-consumptive ways.

“Population, global warming and consumption patterns are inextricably linked in their collective global environmental impact,” reports the Global Population and Environment Program at the non-profit Sierra Club. “As developing countries’ contribution to global emissions grows, population size and growth rates will become significant factors in magnifying the impacts of global warming.”

According to the Worldwatch Institute, a nonprofit environmental think tank, the overriding challenges facing our global civilization are to curtail climate change and slow population growth. “Success on these two fronts would make other challenges, such as reversing the deforestation of Earth, stabilizing water tables, and protecting plant and animal diversity, much more manageable,” reports the group. “If we cannot stabilize climate and we cannot stabilize population, there is not an ecosystem on Earth that we can save.”

Many population experts believe the answer lies in improving the health of women and children in developing nations. By reducing poverty and infant mortality, increasing women’s and girls’ access to basic human rights (health care, education, economic opportunity), educating women about birth control options and ensuring access to voluntary family planning services, women will choose to limit family size.

CONTACTS: United Nations Population Fund, www.unfpa.org; Sierra Club’s Global Population and Environment Program, www.sierraclub.org/population; Worldwatch Institute, www.worldwatch.org.

The size of the carbon legacy is closely tied to consumption patterns. Under current conditions, a child born in the United States will be responsible for almost seven times the carbon emissions of a child born in China and 168 times the impact of a child born in Bangladesh.

The globalization of the world economy, moreover, can mask the true carbon footprint of individual nations. China, for example, recently surpassed the United States to become the world’s leading greenhouse gas emitter. But a large portion of those gases is emitted in the production of consumer goods for the United States and Europe. Thus a large share of “China’s” greenhouse gas footprint is actually the displaced footprint of high-consumption western nations.

Comment The United States has the largest population in the developed world, and is the only developed nation experiencing significant population growth: Its population may double before the end of the century. Its 300 million inhabitants produce greenhouse gases at a per-capita rate that is more than double that of Europe, five times the global average, and more than 10 times the average of developing nations. The U.S. greenhouse gas contribution is driven by a disastrous combination of high population, significant growth, and massive (and rising) consumption levels, and thus far, lack of political will to end our fossil-fuel addiction.

Tramp in a London West End doorway. The more people the more poverty and more money extracted by the rich. The only way the imbalance will be challenged will be with disease famine and war.

The Met Office has issued three days of yellow ‘danger to life warnings’ with more than 186 flood alerts in place across parts of England and Wales.

Posted 29th September 2019

Today will see the heavy rain over parts of Wales and England with flooding in some places.

The rain should clear from the southwest this morning but will persist over parts of north Wales and northern England through much of Sunday.

Torrential rain on the A1 near Leeming in Yorkshire on what is expected to be the hottest day of the year, as thunderstorms could bring a month's worth of rain to parts of the UK, before the hottest temperatures of the year so far bring a balmy end to June. (Photo by Danny Lawson/PA Images via Getty Images)

© PA Wire/PA Images Torrential rain on the A1 near Leeming in Yorkshire on what is expected to be the hottest day of the year, as thunderstorms could bring a month’s worth of rain to parts of the UK, before the hottest temperatures of the year so far bring a balmy end to June. (Photo by Danny Lawson/PA Images via Getty Images)

The rain will be accompanied by strong winds with 35-40 mph gusts likely quite widely, and to 50 mph over coasts and hill tops in southwest England and Wales.

Unsettled conditions are set to continue with more rain warnings in place for Monday and Tuesday.

Editorial Comment During my 18 years of secondary school teaching, I covered most subjects. This included geography. Brazil and Japan were on the curriculum as they set about breaking the rules for rapid profit making economic growth.

Me in the garden of the house where I was born, Royal Mug on empty on the ground and Royalist mug strumming. Life for me, like Greta’s seemed so simple. It was the early 1980s, so the words of the Goldbergs theme song are apposite now, ‘Don’t know the future but the past is getting clearer everyday. Note ourback gardens in Sheep Street were in line and divided by simple fences that we could all see over and chat away if we wanted to.

I recall some key facts about both countries. Japan was building nuclear power stations on the dangerous Pacific Ring of Fire Fault line to reduce dependence on natural gas from mega rich Sultan of Brunei.

The country had a population of 90 million living on 18% of the land space because the rest was volcanic mountainside and supported ony small numbers. The equivalent area of my little back garden in those days would have made an averge Japanese farm useful for multi cropping if enough carcinogenic nitrate fertiliser was used. Like China today, they were extending living and work space by constructing platforms out over the sea.

Brazil menwhile was clearing an are equal to the size of Britain’s Isle of Wight everyday in the rainforest. The slash and burn policy was to create pasture for the meant iundustry and encourage people away from the squalid conditions of the sort of shanty towns expanding around Sao Paulo.

The police were empowered to shoot any poor peron who looked like they might be about to commit crimes against the rich or were making the city look untidy. They were also experimenting with using alcohol derived from sugar cane to fuel the locally built Volkswagen Beetles.

The demographics were 120 million in poverty and misery, ever expanding because Roman Catholicism was their prop and hope was heaven in a world beyond their dreams. Ten million were creaming off the profits safe in the knowledge that Uncle Sam would keep socialism at bay- not that it would have helped if they hadn’t because that system throws up its own elites and corruption.

I had gone into teaching after a spell as an engineering buyer for the Nitrate Corporation of Chile, so was well aware of Britain’s elite connivance with corrupt reigimes in Latin America. Like the U.S Britain was best friends with Argentina until the Thatcher government engineered a war with them, with the deceit that they cared about the Falklanders. Thatcher and her Tory Government cared bout re election, which wasn’t certain since her regime had boosted unemployment to record levels and worse in 1982. Tody we have more of the same, as if war doesn’t have a carbon footprint.

I used to explain global pollution in my geography classes using the metaphor of my old back garden. My mother got very cross when she had hung the washing out- everything was hand washed and hung out to dry- and a neighbour had lit a bonfire. This was because even little Sheep Street had its share in the earth’s atmosphere. Each neighbour had their own little share. A fire in one neighbour’s back garden created smoke which would blow with the wind. The fire itself might even spread because, as you can see from the picture, many of the houses have thatched rooves. Robert Cook September 29th 2019

All About Numbers Posted September 21st 2019

Burning the Amazon Rainforest to make room for agriculture in Brazil. Brazil has 10 million living in the lap of luxury and over 120 million living in squalor with only the Roman Catholic ‘go forth and multiply’ creed for comfort.

Islamabad in Pakistan has a population of 208 million and rising. The British elite love talking down to us about the wonders and importance of diversity. We are not supposed to notice that we are all at the mercy of their global elite rich culture. The sociological definition of culture is ‘attitudes and values.’

Each one of us might be defined in common parlance as individuals, but we are numbers within groups, or sets if one wishes to move into my old field as a maths teacher. I never really liked teaching maths because my colleagues were very much like the numbers they taught, predicatble and without much in the way of wider consciousness. Back in those days we were busy teaching set theory, multiplying matrices and binary numbers.

That was all thirty years ago. At the time I could not see its relevance. i was out of step with my colleagues because I feared the intrusive and controlling nature of computerisation. Microsoft had not made IBM’s products user freindly but I could see the way the world was going. Binary numbers are indeed relevant to modern living, but I doubt many of the masses understand how they work.

There is much talk of humans being non binary, wishful thinking in my view. When scientists finally found an unstable material where they could split atoms, the inhabitants of Hiroshima and Nagasaki experienced without understanding the effects of breaking the binary code.

I escaped the tedium of the maths department for Humanities in the early 1980s, before the National Curriulum, spending a year as acting head of religious education before moving on to geography. In 1986 the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station’s reactor blew up. I read in the ‘Guarian’ news paper that the fall out forced the Laplanders to slaughter their entire reindeer population. This had a big impact as the meat and skin was crucial to the economy. The fallout was spreading across Europe.

Reality, nuclear reactors can fail as can those who run them. Fukushima was built on the earth’s major fault line, ‘The Pacific Ring of Fire’ so disaster as inevitable.

Just dump the contaminated waste in the sea says Japan’s PM.

At the time of the Chernobyl explosion, the extreme right wing British Thatcher Government was in a battle to close down the British coal mining industry. Thateher’s loathing for Britain’s National Union of Mine Workers- its then head the late Lord Joe Gormley turned out to be an MI5 agent- was due to the 1971 strike that put the Tory Government out of office, including her out of the Education Minsiter’s job.

Merkel is mercurial, master/mistress of the sound bite and always dressed like a James Bond villain. All she needs to complete the image is to be stroking a big white cat.

‘Politics is the art of the possible’ as arch Tory Rab Butler once said. Thatcher and her mad mentor Sir Keith Joseph had another reason for wanting to rid Britain of coal mines. They were preparing to privatise British Nuclear Fuels and nuckeasr power stations could be used to produce the by product of enriched uranium, crucial to the manufacture of nuclear weapons. There are 1300 abandoned uranium mines in and around Flint in Nevada U.S.A, with terrible effects on native Navaho tribes. The Colorado River is also seriously contaminated. A british journalist was arrested for filming in the area.

Thatcher’s opposite number in the United States, Ronald Regan, was ridiculed by Britain’s then liberal left media as suffering from dementia. As we now know, the U.S President is something of an awkward puppet. So to write off the mania of arms races and star wars that preocuupied the 1980s doomsters now seems rather silly. Now we have eco anxiety.

Back in the 1980s I was still quite young and teaching geography. I had the then unclassified state of eco anxiety. Chernobyly scared me. My precious son was only nine months old. I wanted him to have a future, that is just binary human nature for you.

I was also dabbling with music and song writing at the time and, as I said, teaching geography at the Grange School in Tory Loyalist stronghold Aylesbury. I was due for promption to head of Integrated Humanities. But I was more concerned for my son’s future than a career ladder.

I made the guitar I am playing here, at home in the early 1980s, My mother knitted my stylish tank top . Knitting patterns, like music and everything else are all about numbers.
Robert Cook dabbling with music,, Leigh Park near Portsmouth

So, with all my eco anxiety on board, I climbed the little stairs into the attic room I had made in my little home, guitar in hand, sat down and recorded a song off the top of my head. Music is numbers. For those who understand music theory, it was very simple. The dominant chord was C Major, the fourth, fifth major chords and relative A minor were used.

The lyrics went : ‘The Nuclear Winter is Coming, Coming Down on the Breeze and old Regan he says he don’t matter, he says its just God with a Sneeze. And your flesh will burn and your bones will melt and your heart won’t beat anymore, and there’s nowhere to run when the show goes down and there’s nowehere to hide when it rains.’ The chorus line was equally grim : ‘We’re gonna grow older in a minute but wan’ed to be kids all our lives.’

I realised I could incorporate the Chernobyl effect on farming in a module I was doing in second year geography- now called 8th year. i used the song recording. I was helping an aspiring young pop group at the time. Its leader was in my sixth form class. He was into the new synthesiser sound. So with the help of three of my second years on vocals, and after school with aprents permission, it was recorded on 8 track.

I had a part time job of the ‘Aylesbury Plus’ newspaper at the time, and my press card. So I went into the local BBC Radio Oxford office. A BBC reporter visited the school, interviewing my pupils and me. They expressed their eco anxiety, the recordings and song was played locally and on Radio 4. I was called in to see the headmaster.

The Tory Head of Education had heard it, I was accused of politicising, my promotion withdrawn and I was advised to resign. I did not resign, just focused on my other job as a reporter and exposing local politicians and others for what they were.

Basically the Tories in charge of Education were on message with government plans to build more nuclear power stations. One such, Sizewell B was planned for Suufolk. Self taught expert Hilda Murrell, who was in her 80s, was a leading opponent. of these new Pressurised Water Reactors. She was going to present her dossier at the Sizewell B Inquiry.

Hilda’s nephew had been intelligence officer on the Royal Navy submarine that illegally sank Argentina’s ‘Belgrano’ with the loos of around 1000 lives. Thatcher’s government were involved in a typical British elite cover up. When the British submarine’s log went missing. So British intelligence were key suspects when the elderly woman’s body was found beaten, half naked and with evidene of sexual assault in a field some miles from her home.

Local police, who are pushed out of the loop in such high level cases, drew no conclusions about the fact that her home had been burgled, ransacked and phone disconnected before her abduction and murder. A TV documentary and a book by journalist Judith Cook noted that hilda would have to have been driven past the local police station en route to the field where she was found dead. Her dossier on Sizewell B was missing from her burgled home.

What has all of this to do with population and environment? It is all about providing energy for an ever expanding population, the politicians and media who cloud the issue. At basic level people divide between men and women to create life. Life needs energy. People group into sets, classes if one can accept that in this fake age of equality and diversity. Life in every group needs energy. So all boils down to how who owns and controls the supply. My experience of being a young eco anxious person being treated like a nuisance by those in charge of education raises questions as to just how seriously the young protestors can be taken.

Back in the 1980s nuclear power wa being seen as the energy solution to an ever expaanding world population. The fact that Chernobyl was a Russian reactor did not matter to the Tories who could not allow anything to alarm the majority of voters it felt confident of continually fooling.

A BBC so called science magazine recently had a young know all with a master’s degree in environmental science doing her virtue signalling. There is no population crisis she proclaimed. It is up to the rich countries to cut their carbon footprint, not the poor who should be allowed to catch up. So her binary view is that it all boils down to rich countries and poor ones.

A limping man walking under what is left of the old Tricorn Centre in Britain’s most deprived and densely populated city, Portsmouth. See ‘The Triccorn, The Life and Death of a Sixties Icon.’ by Dr Celia Clark and Robert Cook, 2009. Demolition cost £1.5 million, displacing small businesses. It was supposed to benefit locals. Centros Miller drew up the plans for revelopment. The boss of Johnston Press was a non executive director of Centros Miller. Johsnton Press own the local newspaper ‘The Portsmouth News’. Their editorial line was to rubbish any notion of saving and modernising the 1960s award winning structure. Sixteen years later nothing has been done to develop the site. Portsmouth now has a luxury designer outlet shopping centre with trendy restaurants on the old Royal Navy Gunwharf site.

A man sleeps rough in the autumn sun, next to rubbish piled in an alleyway next to the old ‘Tricorn’ site, September 2019. Interesting to think that this unwanted man, just more rubbish, was once somebody’s much loved baby boy.

Herbert Diess CEO Volkswagen

German youth protests about internal combustion engines. Car giants say they are being forced to produce cars no one wants and will go to China to produce them more cheaply if they are highly taxed. I had a spell working on Audi/Volkswagen/Bentley testing back in 2008. We had luxury rooms in a four star hotel in Coventry. I was told that the road testing took place every year to adjust the vehicles to Britain’s environment- Britain being the single biggest market for their products.

Carbon fired power stations are blamed, along with cars and lorries for most of the greenhouse gasses.

Germany will struggle to meet greenhouse targets,

AFD leader fears consequences of war on carbon emissions killing German industry and energy supply.

Talking of the rich, Bill Gates owns the intellectual rights to a process called Chem Cloud. It is about lots and lots of aircraft releasing clouds of chemicals, simulating a volcano errupting, to blot out the sun. They admit the full consequences are unkown and we might never see blue skies again. This process will cool the earth’s surface but might lead to famine.

Are these people insane or are they worried about the numbers, so much that they want to kill people en masse? The funniest idea from the elite for reducing industrial farming is for humans to eat dead people instead of farmed animals. You can’t make it up as they say. We had the Ministry of Funny Walks on Monty Python, now we seem to have the Minsitry of Funny ideas. TO BE CONTINUED.

Eco Anxiety Affecting the young middle class environment activists. September 18th 2019

The famous young envoronmental campaigner Greta surrounded by young female fans enjoying a photo opportunity in the U.S. Appaently her efforts have triggered a new syndrome among the young middle classes. It is called eco-anxiety. Posted September 19th 2019.
Suzie Roach

Time To Repost — Climate Change/ Warming / Emergency is pure BULLSHIT by the United Nations & their Elitist Muppets.themillenniumreport.comReport from Iron Mountain: How War Will Be Replaced By Environmental Destruction To Traumatize Humanity

Not my view, but all views are needed to balance the picture and get to the truth. We all think we know what truth is.

How Religion is Making Overpopulation Worse Posted September 12th 2019

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By Vexen Crabtree | 10 April 2015
Human Truth

1. The Necessity of Birth Control and Contraception and the Opposition of Religious Organisations

Few people doubt the severity of the problem that overpopulation presents for this planet. Its consequences are poverty, famine, disease and death, sometimes on very large scales. Minor problems include overcrowding, strained infrastructure and social instability. By facilitating contraception and women’s medical services we enable family planning. “Allowing women to plan their pregnancies also leads to healthier outcomes for children. A recent study showed that if all births were spaced at least two years apart, the number of deaths among children younger than five would decline by 13%. The number would decline by 25% if there were a three-year gap between births“[1]. Making birth control accessible to all is a moral requirement for anyone who has the power to help. It is inconsistent, for example, to say that contraception and abortion is “murder” whilst ignoring the fact that poverty and overpopulation are far bigger killers.

Aside from population control, “the health benefits of contraceptive use are substantial. Contraceptives prevent unintended pregnancies, reduce the number of abortions, and lower the incidence of death and disability related to complications of pregnancy and childbirth”[1]. The numbers of abortions that are prevented by contraception is staggering. A Guttmacher Institute report on the developing world predicts that “in 2012, use of modern contraceptives in the developing world will prevent 218 million unintended pregnancies, which, in turn, will avert 55 million unplanned births, 138 million abortions (40 million of them unsafe), 25 million miscarriages and 118,000 maternal deaths. It will also prevent an estimated 1.1 million neonatal deaths (those within 28 days of birth) and 700,000 postneonatal infant deaths (those from 28 days to one year of age)”[1]. Condoms help prevent the spread of disease – their effect is strong enough that long-term use by a community can gradually eradicate strains of sexually transmitted diseases from the community. Venereal disease causes unimaginable suffering and can affect the purely innocent. Babies are frequently infected with the diseases of the parents; in this way, the prevention of disease with contraception is vital because once women in a local area are infected with a disease, children will also be directly infected. In the case of incurable diseases, such an event can lead to unsurmountable suffering. Such a terrible state of affairs is prevented by the correct use of contraceptives such as condoms. The number of women with unmet needs for contraception in the developing world is still increasing – between 2008 and 2012 the figure rose from 153 million to 162 million[1]. Those 69 countries are the ones that are least able to support growing populations.

“Some of the religious traditions have presented recurring obstacles to open discussion of certain kinds of birth control at UN population conferences. These religious groups are associated largely with Islam, Roman Catholicism, and evangelical Christianity.”

“Religion and Ecology” Mary Evelyn Tucker (2011)[2]

Religious opposition to abortion, birth control and contraception: Despite the practical necessity of birth control, the benefits of disease prevention, the moral responsibility we have towards the future of our children and the responsibility we have with regards to the stewardship of our planet, many religions have opposed birth control for various superstitious reasons. On the other side of the fence, it is worth knowing that all of the pioneers of contraception were freethinkers[3],[4], (that is, people who are opposed to the influence of organized religion on people’s opinions and beliefs). Why have religions determined to prevent family planning? The answer is in a kind of survival of the fittest amongst religions themselves. As most religious people simply abide by the religion of their parents[5], religions that encourage parents to have more children will attain a stronger and longer-lasting base of adherents. Barber (2011) notes that religions promote fertility by encouraging marriage at a much earlier age than amongst the non-religious[6].

Bearing this out is Catholicism, which has an infamously strict suite of dogmas that forbid all kinds of birth control. The Roman Catholic Church is the most notable, powerful and active organisation that lobbies against birth-control wherever it can, internationally. Thankfully most Catholics routinely ignore the Church on this issue, especially in educated and developed countries, but there are still plenty of fast-growing countries where the Catholic Church is still prospering the old-fashioned way. It took the government of the Philippines 13 years to force through legislation to allow government-funded contraception and for sex education in schools because of the strength of the opposition of the Catholic Church there – in a country where 11 women die of pregnancy-related problems every day. The Catholic Church “ferociously” opposed it, warning of moral and social collapse, the destruction of family life, and divine wrath, if it was passed. The bill is considered “a major step toward reducing maternal deaths and promoting family planning in the impoverished country, which has one of Asia’s fastest-growing populations. […] The United Nations said early this year that the bill would help reduce an alarming number of pregnancy-related deaths, prevent life-threatening abortions and slow the spread of AIDS”[7].

The graph to the right can be clicked to view the full size version. It shows that the effects of religious prohibitions against birth control are clear on the international scale. No country that is either less than 40% religious, or has less than a 40% rate of belief in God, has a fertility rate of over 2.0. Conversely, every country that has a fertility rate of over 3.0 is over 80% in terms of both belief in God and in the rate at which they say they are religious.

On account of all of this, in “Why I am not a Christian” by Bertrand Russell (1957) the author takes a moral stance against the Church:

“I begin with contraception, because here the influence of superstition is particularly noteworthy. […] If either of the parents has venereal disease, the child is likely to inherit it. If they already have too many children for the family income, there will be poverty, underfeeding, overcrowding, very likely incest. To please [the anti-contraception religious types] a life of torture is inflicted upon millions of human beings […] merely because it is supposed that sexual intercourse is wicked unless accompanied by desire for offspring. […] If they had even the smallest spark of love or pity for children they could not adhere to a moral code involving this fiendish cruelty. […]

To be killed suddenly and then eaten, which was the fate of the Aztecs’ victims, is a far less degree of suffering than is inflicted upon a child born in miserable surroundings and tainted with venereal disease. Yet it is the greater suffering which is deliberately inflicted by bishops and politicians in the name of morality.”

Why I am not a Christian” by Bertrand Russell (1957)[3]

Simple contraceptive measures such as condoms can be used to prevent long-term suffering and control population growth, but also endows families with shorter term relief from suffering, and it is for these reasons that Bertrand Russell above states that Aztec cannibalism produced less suffering than anti-birth control lobbyists. The availability of methods to control family size is one of the biggest factors in being able to escape poverty.

“In the world as a whole, a stunning 135m people escaped dire poverty between 1999 and 2004. […] More people, more quickly than at any other time in history. […] Perhaps the biggest change affecting people’s lives has little to do, at least directly, with development policy or public spending. People in poor countries are now able to exert more control over their own fertility, and hence over the size of their families.”

The Economist (2008)[9]

Aside from statistical commentary, it is often individual cases that can educate people about the need, however unfortunate, for abortions to be available at proper medical institutions. Neil J. Kressel relates a story about an American woman who “now believes abortion rights are an important component of American civil rights and that physicians have a moral obligation to make them available, even if at considerable risk to themselves. […] Her change of heart came partly from experiences during her medical training, including one occasion when she had to counsel an eleven-year-old girl. The doctor recalls: ‘[I]t soon became obvious that she had no understanding of sex – she didn’t really understand that she’d even had it, or that it had any connection to her pregnancy”[10]. In the real-world, the moral arguments are strongly in favour of those who defend the right of women and doctors to be able to freely use abortion as one of their possible methods of preventing harm.

2. Condom Promotion vs. Harmful Ideology

2.1. Anti-Condom Pseudoscience

Condoms are scientifically proven to be superior methods of preventing the spread of sexually transmitted diseases and are effective methods of birth control[11]. But, for superstitious reasons, some religions such as the Catholic Church and a mixture of other fundamentalist groups have run (and still run) long campaigns against their use[11]. Their ideology not only prevents them from using effective anti-disease contraception, but it causes them to also (a) deny its effectiveness (b) emphasize problems with condoms and (c) actively campaign against others’ use of it, and even to the extent of sabotaging the distribution of condoms. Catholic agencies in Africa have committed such horrors as instructing all condoms to be stapled (piercing them), and Christian leaders are regularly caught teaching that condoms don’t work and recently, that Westerners are distributing HIV-ridden condoms that will give their users AIDS. (HIV is the virus that causes AIDS, but, neither survives outside the body so such stories are misinformed, let alone paranoid).

2.2. Abstinence-Only Sex Education

Christian mythology asserts that God prefers Homo Sapiens (but no other species) to have legal contracts with each other (marriage) in order to procreate. Conservative Christians often talk about “abstinence-only” education, and in many states in the USA have conducted battles to stop schools from educating children about safe sex. Instead, they teach, that in order to be responsible Christians adults, you have to abstain from sex until marriage.

“In the US and elsewhere, ‘Just Say No!’ campaigns promote sexual abstinence, while unmarried young people with a sexual past are encouraged to become “born-again virgins” through a pledge to refrain from further sexual activity until marriage. However, such programmes have generally been unsuccessful in radically changing sexual behaviour or in reducing rates of HIV/Aids transmission, as health evaluations have demonstrated.”

Sexuality: A Very Short Introduction” by Veronique Mottier (2008)[12]

But, whether or not abstinence-only works can be tested and studied. “Studies have found that abstinence-only sex education programs actually increase the rates of pregnancy and STDs in the teenage population”[13]. “Kirsten Underhill and her colleagues at the University of Oxford have, over the past few months, been testing it”[14]. Their studies involved 16 000 young people in America and compared Christian abstinence-only education with no (or low key) education.

“Pregnancies were as numerous in both groups. Sexually transmitted diseases were as widespread. The number of sexual partners was equally high and unprotected sex just as common. […] In contrast to the fears of the protagonists of abstinence-only-education, not one of the trials found that teenagers behaved in a riskier fashion in either the long or the short term after receiving [condom] instruction.”

The Economist (2007)[15]

However in 2009 new data revealed that in the USA at least, abstinence-only education was not only ineffectual, but was actually making things worse:

“To the surprise of few outside the rarefied world of the Religious Right, it has emerged that George W Bush’s “abstinence only” policies led directly to a rise in teenage pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. The Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says that after years of falling rates, teen pregnancies and STDs started rising after Bush was re-elected in 2005.

According to the CDC, birth rates among teenagers aged 15 or older had been in decline since 1991 but rose sharply in more than half of American states after 2005. The number of teenage girls with syphilis had risen by nearly half after a big decrease, while a 20-year fall in the gonorrhea infection rate was being reversed. AIDS cases in adolescent boys had nearly doubled. […]

The number of teen pregnancies is double in areas where abstinence is the only method of birth control taught as opposed to areas where there is comprehensive sex education and condoms are handed out. […] Religious proponents of the “abstinence-only” policies still insist that the reason for the rise is because their policies were not promoted hard enough.”

National Secular Society, National Secular Society (2009)[16]

The Bible-belt is a swathe of Southern states in the USA famous for their embrace of tough Christianity. It was here, where abstinence-only programmes are popular, that the CDC reported the highest rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs.

In conclusion:

  • Condoms excel at preventing sexually transmitted diseases, and, educating people about safe sex and condom use does not lead to increased promiscuity.
  • Abstinence-only education does not work and has led to increased rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs.

3. The Catholic Church’s Eternal and Absolute Truth

The Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, embody a wide range of opinions and practices on contraception. In the 1920s, most Christian denominations, including both Protestants and Catholics, were against birth control and contraception[17]. According to a Catholic website, “At its 1930 Lambeth Conference, the Anglican church, swayed by growing social pressure, announced that contraception would be allowed in some circumstances. Soon the Anglican church completely caved in, allowing contraception across the board. Since then, all other Protestant denominations have followed suit”[18]. In modern times it is the Catholic church that is most famously and strongly against the use of contraceptives, even for the use of disease prevention. But whilst the official doctrine as propounded from the pulpit is strict; condemnations of contraceptive use are widely ignored on the ground. Even in Poland, Europe’s most Catholic country, “many are openly defying its rulings on contraception and abortion”[19]. Hindus are free to employ birth control methods as they see fit.

Any conscientious priest in the Catholic Church should consider openly declaring dissatisfaction with the Vatican’s anti-human and anti-equality policies. Mother Theresa, one of the other “good guys” who has rabidly opposed condoms, spent millions flying to and fro in Europe and the USA on political campaigns against contraceptives. The Catholic Church, with all its money, could turn itself into a force for good and squarely put the dark ages behind itself, but, riddled with superstition and religious inhibitions, it is still a dangerous and dysfunctional failure, crippled by delusions about the real world.

3.1. The Absolute Truth until 1930: All Birth Control Methods are Wrong

The Catholic Church has heavily opposed all forms of birth control for all of known history. The current document is Pope Paul VI’s Humanae Vitae (1968)[20], reflecting the opinion of Pope Piux XI in 1930 that the Catholic Church teaches absolute truth as passed down ‘uninterruptedly from the beginning’[21]. Between 1816 and 1916 there were twelve separate condemnations of contraception issued by the Catholic Church’s Sacred Penitentiary[17]. One thing is clear: For much of its history, the Catholic Church has strongly opposed contraception. In particular, it has opposed any method that intentionally prevents childbirth between a married man and woman.

3.2. The Absolute Truth from 1930: The Safe Period Method is OK

Despite this clear, long-standing and impractical standing, things slightly changed in 1930. The eternal truth passed down and taught by Catholics “from the beginning”, slightly changed for the better, and the Casti Connubii allowed, in extreme situations, couples to use the ‘safe period’ or ‘rhythm’ method. This inaccurate method hardly works and doesn’t stop the spread of disease, but, nonetheless, the position of the Catholic Church changed a little. This change in absolute, eternal doctrine of the infallible Pope (get the sarcasm?) was confirmed twice by Pope John XXIII in 1951.

3.3. Immoral

It is no wonder that Bryan Wilson, in his discussion of how Christian Churches have followed society, but lagged behind (therefore undermining their own claims of doctrinal moral truth), uses the history of birth control as his main example of the changes in society that have led to changes in Church doctrine[22].

43% of Roman Catholic priests in England & Wales do not support the Church’s ban on contraception (another 19% are unsure)

National Secular Society, Newsline (2003)[23]

All of this so far would be merely an academic curiosity, another example of zany religious clerics making odd declarations based on ever odder historical precedents. But the Catholic Church is also a heavy activist, and has caused uncountable numbers of poor people in South America and Africa to become infected with HIV and other STDs, contributed to the dangerous population explosion, and undermined charity organisations that support birth control, such as when the Birmingham Catholic Church boycotted Comic Relief because money raised might go to a family planning clinic that gave access to contraceptions to street children[24]. The Catholic Church causes very real suffering amongst very poor people as a result of its impractical policies.

3.4. Catholic Church Opposing Condoms in Africa, Despite HIV Threats

Africa suffers massively from HIV and AIDS, and is the continent that saw the first cases. 20 million people have died from AIDS in Africa and a further 22.5 million are infected with HIV. Many are born with it, as it often passes from mother to baby, and due to the nature of HIV, many people can have the virus but remain without symptoms, sometimes for decades.

The Catholic Church still strongly opposes the use of condoms in Africa, which is home to 135 million Catholics[25]. In Kenya, local Bishops have instead recommended that abstinence, “counseling” and “ethics” are used to prevent the spread of HIV, instead of condoms. The Catholic Church has run long-term campaigns against condoms. Dr Muga, Kenya, said that the government has reduced infection rate from 14% to 10% as a result of sex education and condom contraception, but still, the Catholic Church campaigns against sex education that teaches the value of contraception. Bishop Korir said that only the guilty were afraid and resorted to condoms, and that he wanted “no condom talk” (2003)[26]. Those who are born with it, or are infected with it because a partner unknowingly had it, are not exactly ‘guilty’!

You might think that such crazy Bishops are a phenomenon peculiar to Africa. But the doctrine against condoms comes from the top, and the Vatican’s official long-standing policy is propounded even in Europe and the USA. Pope Benedict, the German head of the Catholic Church from 2005 to 2013, delivered speeches in Africa in 2009 and reiterated, in the 21st century, his stance against condoms:

“Asked about the use of condoms to help tackle the scourge of AIDS, the pope restated, in unusually explicit terms, the church’s position that these are not useful to “overcome” the epidemic, indeed their use actually makes the problem worse. He suggested the disease could be beaten through chastity, abstinence and “correct behaviour”. […] His statement sounded otherworldly at best, and crass and uncaring at worst. Merely wishing away human sexual behaviour does nothing for the potential victims of AIDS, many of whom are innocent under even the most moralistic definition of that word.”

The Economist (2009)[25]

In countries where the authorities are weak, science is ill-established and there are mass social problems, it would help a lot if the Catholic Church, with its powerful social networks, joined in with the efforts to stop the decay of society due to disease and overpopulation (two things that go hand-in-hand). But governments in Africa and South America, not to mention the USA and European countries such as Poland, have to fight against the church on such simple measures as birth control and condom use, and this battle often politicizes the operations of charities and welfare groups.

4. Abortion: How Religion and Rationality Clash

A woman in Berega, Tanzania, who sought care after a botched abortion. In Tanzania, where abortion is illegal, the maternal death rate is high in part because of failed abortions. (Béatrice de Géa for The New York Times)

The best ways to prevent abortion are increased education[27], increased (and more equal) chances in life for women, less poverty and fewer legal restrictions on abortion. In developed countries where abortion is legal, rates drop. Where it is illegal or heavily restricted, and where it goes against popular religion’s beliefs, the rates of illegal abortions are high. Millions of women each year suffer from medical complications as the result of having to obtain illegal “back street” abortions; 70,000 of those women die as a result[28].

“A new report by the Guttermacher Institute, a pro-choice think-tank [examines how] prohibitions on abortion are slowly easing, though poor countries remain much tougher than rich ones. Since 1997, 22 places have changed their abortion laws and in 19 of those cases the change was a liberalisation. […] In Western Europe, which has among the most liberal laws in the world, abortion rates are the lowest. Places where abortion is in effect banned, such as Uganda, typically see the highest incidence of abortion.”

The Economist (2009)[28]

The Catholic Church campaigns heavily against abortion as it does against contraception, no matter how much suffering is caused. It does not just limit its interference to matters concerning its own staff or followers, but actively tries to impose its superstitions on any over whom it might have power or influence, such as governments of countries such as the USA, Poland and Italy, and charities. Even when a charity would help a poverty-stricken woman who was raped by a soldier, or when a genetic disease threatens the life of the mother or would render the child’s life unliveable, the Catholic church will still lobby to prevent abortion.

“The Catholic Church has been persecuting Amnesty since it was revealed that the human rights organisation had changed its policy on abortion to support women who were raped and impregnated by enemy soldiers. Catholic schools have been told not to raise funds for Amnesty and Catholic bishops have been advising their parishioners to withdraw their support.”

National Secular Society (2008)[29]

Fundamentalist Christian organisations in the USA are responsible for that country’s strict laws on the matter in many states. The political researcher Andrew Heywood notes the Christian group Moral Majority founded by the famous bigot Jerry Falwell: “since the 1980s its principal energies have been devoted to the campaign against abortion […], homosexuality, pornography, premarital sex and, in the USA at least, the teaching of Darwinian theories of evolution rather than Biblical ‘creationism’ have also been castigated”[30]. Other Christian “religious right” organisations and Christian activist individuals follow similar agendas against abortion and against gay rights[31]. In the UK a notable anti-abortion lobbying group is Christian Action Research and Education (CARE) which has “adopted a broad agenda, and developed sophisticated methods of lobbying and mobilization on moral and welfare issues […], campaigning on medical ethical issues, opposing abortion (although without the militant direct action of counterparts in the USA)”[32].

Anti-abortion activists from 20 European countries jointly run a campaign to de-fund activities including research and development that involve human embryos. Such activists are joined by the likes of the fundamentalist Catholic organisation “European Center for Law and Justice”, which, ironically, seek to undermine law and justice and replace them with theocracy and Catholic rule. The Pope’s vocal support for these groups sees the Catholic Church continue its involvement in anti-abortion and anti-human-rights movements in Europe as well as in the USA, South America and Africa[33].

In the wake of a long series of serious of prolific sexual scandals across Christendom, many have come to suspect that there is something deeply wrong with Christian Biblical dogma on sexuality in general. One author who has published at length on the horrific sex abuses of the church notes that (thankfully) most ordinary Catholics do not subscribe to their own Church’s stance on most issues of sexuality, which must serve to reduce the effective influence of the church:

More and more scholars see the official Catholic position on sexuality as both dangerous and false. […] Large numbers of Catholics simply do not trust the authoritative teachings of the Vatican in matters of sexuality. Contraception, abortion, remarriage after divorce, homosexuality, and masturbation – all areas of strict prohibition according to Vatican teaching – are tolerated as acceptable behaviour by lay Catholics in roughly the same proportion as by members of other denominations.”

Sex, Priests and Power: Anatomy of a Crisis” by Richard Sipe (1995)[34]

Liberal abortion laws have proven to be the best not only for the safety of women and the health of society in general, but are also associated with low rates of abortion. I think that once a society can openly and freely talk about family planning without such things as taboos or religious dogma getting in the way, responsible behaviour can be increased in general.

5. Anti-Abortion Violence and Murder by Fundamentalist Christians in the USA [35]

The USA has a particular problem with fundamentalist Christians, many of whom come to hold strong anti-abortion views. Based on this, violent activists have frequently targeted abortion providers. The following quotes are taken from “Bad Faith: The Danger of Religious Extremism” by Neil J. Kressel (2007):

“Since 1991, there have been seven murders and seventeen attempted murders of abortion providers and their associates. There have been 300 reported death threats, 84 incidents of assault and battery, 99 acts of arson, 967 cases of vandalism, 367 bomb threats, and 15 bombings. On 482 occasions, antiabortion activists have stalked doctors, staff members, or patients. Minor disruptions are more frequent. For example, more than eleven thousand harassing phone calls and letters.[36] […]

Dr. Barnett Slepian was one such stubborn and dedicated physician, and on October 23, 1998, a member of the Army of God, an extremist group, finally delivered his ‘just deserts’. Slepian had returned from synagogue with his wife and four sons. While standing in the kitchen of his home, surrounded by his family, he was shot dead by sniper James Kopp [… who] was also suspected in the earlier shootings of several other abortion providers.[37] […] In an eerie letter to the editor of the Buffalo News written four years before his death, he warned:

“The members of the local non-violent pro-life community may continue to picket my home wearing large ‘Slepian Kills Children’ buttons…. They may also display the six-foot banner with the same quotation at the entrance to my neighborhood…. They may continue to scream that I am a murderer and a killer when I enter clinics at which they ‘peacefully’ exercise their First Amendment Right of freedom of speech…. But please don’t feign surprise, dismay and certainly not innocence when a more volatile and less restrained member of the group decides to react to their inflammatory rhetoric by shooting an abortion provider. They all share the blame.”[38]

[…] The Army of God Web site still triumphantly displays a photograph of Dr. Slepian amid wavy yellow and orange flames. The caption proclaims: ‘Slepian now burning in hell fire where he belongs’. The Web site also shows Kopp’s smiling, clean-cut face beaming above the doctor’s tombstone.[39] […]

Kopp – unlike the majority of violent antiabortion extremists – is Roman Catholic [rather than Protestant]. […] He engaged in clinic protests in the mid-1980s and became associated with two extremist groups, Operation Rescue and Lambs of Christ. Kopp soon became well known among antiabortion extremists. One major protest in 1988 led to his arrest and jailing along with other militants, including Shelley Shannon (who later shot Dr. George Tiller), John Arena (who later committed a butyric acid attack against an abortion clinic), and others. […] Catholicism has been a central part of Kopp’s life, and no doubt the church’s teachings contributed to his view that abortion is murder. A priest, Father Norman Weslin, heads the radically antiabortion Lambs of Christ, for which Kopp was once a chief strategist.[40] […]

Another fanatic, Eric Robert Rudolph, bombed an abortion clinic in Birmingham, Alabama, and in the process killed an off-duty police officer. Rudolph also carried out several other attacks, including one targeting a gay bar and the notorious bombing at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.[41] […]

Paul Hill is the only man ever executed for crimes against abortion providers and, among the extremists, he is an unrivalled candidate for canonization. […] Hill explains how he came to kill Dr. Britton in several articles and his book Mix My Blood with the Blood of the Unborn. The Army of God makes these materials readily available, always picturing Hill with a warm, avuncular grin. Once a Presbyterian minister, religion means everything to Hill. […] He then joined a Reformed Presbyterian church that agreed with him on the doctrinal issue and became very involved in pro-life activism. When another activist shot Dr. David Gunn, Hill called the Phil Donahue Show and compared the act to killing a doctor in a Nazi death camp. Soon after, he appeared on ABC’s Nightline to justify yet another violent attack on an abortion provider. Hill cites scripture frequently but not compulsively.[42] […]

Comments such as these suggest that religious thoughts, feelings, and experiences propel most violent antiabortion activists, and sometimes provide their central inspiration. Far from being impulsive or insane, these extremists contemplate and calculate their terror as a means of achieving what they consider to be a religiously certified objective. Several violent activists equate abortion with murder because they learned precisely this as young Catholics and Protestants. Christian clerics, of course, figure prominently in the Right to Life movement, and some priests and ministers from mainstream denominations still in good standing (e.g., Father Weslin) have spearheaded antiabortion protest movements that employ questionable tactics. One even finds some fringe Christian clergy associated with the Army of God. The Web sites and writings of the antiabortion extremists overflow with biblical quotations and allusions.[43] […]

Operation Rescue’s national director, the Reverend Flip Benham, says that Dr. Slepian murdered ‘countless thousands of innocent children,’ but that his group still does not condone the murder. Many of his followers probably perceive, I think correctly, that he is being disingenuous for legal and political purposes.[44] […]

Reverend Michael Bray wrote the definitive Christian text supporting violent activism. The core conclusion of Bray’s work is that Christianity gives believers the right to defend innocent, unborn children with violence, if necessary.[45] […] Paul Hill has pointed out, not unreasonably, that given the pro-life premises so strongly expressed by the Southern Baptists in their document on the matter, the logic behind their rejection of violence is not entirely convincing.[46]”

Bad Faith: The Danger of Religious Extremism” by Neil J. Kressel (2007)[47]

6. How Faulty Teachings on Sexuality Lead to Faulty Society

“The high child abuse and sexual abuse rates within the Christian priesthood highlight a problem that many religions face: We should not attempt to mould human sexuality around otherworldly religious ideals. Sexual dysfunction always results. Psychologists and sociologists have noted the association between extreme religious fervour and psycho-sexual problems (the former causing the latter), and the highly negative stance that many monotheistic religions take towards sexuality in general have contributed to a general malaise amongst their lay adherents, and a serious pandemic of abuse amongst professional religionists. The religious attitude towards religion is to behave like an ostrich and stick its head in the sand, hoping that theology can override biological truth, but merely making its victims unable to cope with adult sexuality. Witness the hateful and confusing statements that Christians and Muslims make about homosexuals, the anti-contraception stance that the Catholic church has in an over-crowded world ridden with disease, the harmful and simplistic rejection of abortion and the patriarchal dominance over women that has gone hand-in-hand with traditional religion on every continent.

In the modern world, many modern popular movements provide an alternative to traditional religions, and have enshrined normal sexuality. The secular world merely lets sexuality remain natural, and the New Age movement amongst many others, actively engage sexuality. The results have been much more positive and healthy than those of the classical monotheistic religions. This is one reason why countries that have liberal laws on abortion also have much lower rates of abortion than highly religious countries that restrict abortion heavily. An atmosphere of taboo and restriction serves limits responsible sexual behaviour. Rather than an ostrich, be a peacock!”

The Peacock vs. the Ostrich – Religious Behaviour and Sexuality: 5. Conclusions: Be a Peacock (Secular Society and New Religious Movements Excepted)” by Vexen Crabtree (2008)

Delingpole: Greta Thunberg – Saving the World One Sick Bag at a Time Posted September 12th 2019

TOPSHOT - Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg looks on during a meeting in the garden of the Hotel de Lassay ahead of a visit of the French National Assembly, in Paris, on July 23, 2019. (Photo by Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP) (Photo credit should read LIONEL BONAVENTURE/AFP/Getty Images)
LIONEL BONAVENTURE/AFP/Getty Images

James Delingpole31 Jul 2019692 3:19

If you’re not a fan of Greta Thunberg you are going to LOVE her latest wheeze: sailing across the Atlantic in a 60-foot vomit-machine made up of so much eco-unfriendly carbon fibre she would probably have done less environmental damage if she’d flown by private jet.

The pig-tailed eco activist – recently voted* Official World’s Number One Most Annoying Child – will be leaving Europe from an undisclosed location sometime in August and sailing to the U.S. on a 60-foot racing yacht Malizia II.

It’s being spun as a victory for the environment because even though the boat – fitted with solar panels and underwater turbines – has a diesel engine for emergencies it will attempt to make the journey using wind power alone.

What the publicity blurb doesn’t mention, though, is how incredibly un-eco-friendly carbon fibre is.

PROPHET OR PUPPET? Posted September 12th 2019

Fears Greta Thunberg is being manipulated on climate change by pushy parents and energy giants

  • 19 Aug 2019, 23:08
  • Updated: 20 Aug 2019, 8:08

WITH cold, hard eyes, Greta Thunberg jabs a finger forward – like Lord Kitchener in the famous “Your country needs you” wartime posters.

On her smart black jacket, the words “Can You Hear Me?” are daubed in white.

 GQ magazine has named Greta Thunberg their 'Game Changer Of The Year'
GQ magazine has named Greta Thunberg their ‘Game Changer Of The Year’Credit: PA:Press Association

For men’s magazine GQ, more used to feting A-list showbiz stars, the striking cover featuring the 16-year-old eco warrior has caused quite the stir.

GQ hails the pig-tailed Swede the Game Changer Of The Year for dragging climate change to the top of the global agenda — where politicians, scientists, celebrities and activists have previously failed.

But is Greta a green prophet or a schoolgirl puppet controlled by more sinister forces behind her?

The cover coincides with her much-hyped trip across the Atlantic aboard a “zero carbon” yacht to attend the UN climate action summit in New York.

AIR RAGE

It is a move designed — Meghan and Harry take note — to emphasise the damage flying does to the environment.

When she arrives in the US later this month, she will receive a hero’s welcome with anyone who is anyone lining up to get alongside the new poster girl for the Left.

So far, so woke for the teen who has already met Pope Francis and been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

But as she contends with her basic rations and bucket toilet somewhere across the Atlantic, a more cynical picture has emerged of a well-intentioned but naive child being manipulated by energy giants and pushy celebrity parents — including a fame-hungry mum who once appeared on Eurovision.

 Thunberg addresses the National Assembly in Paris
Thunberg addresses the National Assembly in ParisCredit: Getty – Contributor
 Greta's journey across the Atlantic began on August 14 and is expected to take two weeks
Greta’s journey across the Atlantic began on August 14 and is expected to take two weeks

Greta’s achievements in just a year are undoubtedly phenomenal.

Her “school strike for climate” began 12 months ago today and sparked a global movement which saw 1.6million people in 133 countries go out on demonstrations.

Greta, who has a form of autism called Asperger syndrome, is a charismatic and forthright speaker who has managed to wrap senior politicians round her finger.

‘YOU LIED TO US’

Pulling no punches, she told MPs at the Houses of Parliament: “You lied to us. You gave us false hope. You told us that the future was something to look forward to.”

She added that unless CO2 emissions are reduced by at least 50 per cent by 2030, “we will be in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control, that will most likely lead to the end of our civilisation as we know it”.

Now Gretamania is about to arrive on US shores — and it will not be without controversy.

Arron Banks, co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign, ignited fury last week by tweeting of her solar-powered voyage: “Freak yachting accidents do happen in August.”

‘NO SENSE OF HUMOUR’

After being deluged with criticism, he wrote: “It was a joke . . . you lefties have no sense of humour.”

And in response to a tweet which pointed out that she is a child, he replied: “Quite and one being used.” And that is the debate.

As the Guardian reported in 2017:

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